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Prediction markets for Government

Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?

Nov 13, 2:32 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

38.36%chance

12231479322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10867

8057

Next US government shutdown (with furlough)

Jul 6, 12:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

377274599

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2030s

2028

2029

2024

Not before 2050

2023

2040s

46

23

19

5

3

2

1

1

0

0

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

149198802

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

61

21

17

2

0

0

0

0

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

53.08%chance

91101678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

940

Will there be a US government shutdown in 2025?

Jul 19, 6:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.81%chance

10733650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4168

745

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.41%chance

8720078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12408

8996

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.59%chance

7719985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2716

1411

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57.71%chance

8118684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

893

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.33%chance

146906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14718

5388

Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025?

May 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:21 PM

67.04%chance

303185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2582

1615

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

AI Governance Stock (Permanent)

Feb 9, 8:31 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

431

OptionProbability

NO

YES

141

90

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