Government News

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

YES

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government

A judge grants an injunction against the Department of War

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation

OpenAI signs a contract substantially weaker than Anthropic's requirements

The Department of War signs a deal to use OpenAI models instead

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before 2027

The supply chain risk designation is officially issued

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation And survives unblocked by other courts for 6 months

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before July

The government offers the same terms to Anthropic as to OpenAI

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 OpenAI employees

Anthropic's contract is publicly available

US company with >100B total valuation cancels some Pentagon contract and uses Anthropic supply chain risk designation as stated justification

OpenAI's new contract is publicly available

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

Dario Amodei leaves or is removed from Anthropic

Anthropic gives the government unfettered access of their own accord (they "cave in")

The Pentagon designates Anthropic a supply chain risk, AND invokes the Defense Production Act

Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 Anthropic researchers

Will Amazon have to divest / break with Anthropic in 2026?

Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities

The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes (autonomous weapon + mass surveillance of americans)

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YES

YES

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NO

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NO

Option 1: Team A (The Firebrands: Sifuna/Babu/Arati/Orengo) - Resolves if Sifuna remains SG or ODM officially supports a presidential candidate (even from another party, e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang'i)with a nod from the firebrands

Option 2: Team B (The Broad-based: Wanga/Joho/Mbadi) - Resolves if a Team B member becomes SG or the party officially joins the Government coalition for 2027.