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Google Undercuts OpenAI With Sub-$1 Gemini Plan for Federal Agencies

1 year ago

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

23.13%chance

212377727

OptionVotes

YES

1824

549

Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)

May 19, 12:55 PMDec 24, 4:59 AM

68.48%chance

26738505

OptionVotes

YES

1502

624

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.65%chance

9122191

OptionVotes

YES

14513

8421

Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?

Apr 20, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32%chance

8721359

OptionVotes

YES

1417

1073

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.63%chance

7720024

OptionVotes

YES

2468

1439

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.35%chance

9219942

OptionVotes

YES

1800

587

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.95%chance

324193

OptionVotes

YES

1361

735

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

YES

1534

660

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

YES

10538

9489

AI Governance Stock (Permanent)

Feb 9, 8:31 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

533

OptionProbability

YES

137

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

Jan 8, 11:12 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Option 1: Team A (The Firebrands: Sifuna/Babu/Arati/Orengo) - Resolves if Sifuna remains SG or ODM officially supports a presidential candidate (even from another party, e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang'i)with a nod from the firebrands

Option 2: Team B (The Broad-based: Wanga/Joho/Mbadi) - Resolves if a Team B member becomes SG or the party officially joins the Government coalition for 2027.

Option 3: Add names to complement your Team or suggest your prefered team formation and alignment

Will any government let AI issue binding incarceration decisions without human final approval by the end of 2030?

Nov 7, 2:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Yes if a credible public report (government announcement, court records, reputable news with primary sources, or official legislation/regulation) confirms that an AI system: • Issued a final order, sentence, detention decision, or equival

No otherwise. Pilot programs, recommendations only, human-final systems, or systems used solely for research/prediction do not qualify. • Applies to any sovereign national or subnational (state/provincial) court or justice system. Private

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Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

AI Governance Stock (Permanent)

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

Will any government let AI issue binding incarceration decisions without human final approval by the end of 2030?

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