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University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

4 months ago

OpenAI’s Altman Concedes GPT-5 Missteps, Vows Faster GPT-6

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AI Products

OpenAI’s Altman Concedes GPT-5 Missteps, Vows Faster GPT-6

4 months ago

OpenAI Launches GPT-5 Powered Codex Update With IDE Extension, Local-Cloud Task Handoff, GitHub Reviews, and Revamped CLI

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OpenAI Launches GPT-5 Powered Codex Update With IDE Extension, Local-Cloud Task Handoff, GitHub Reviews, and Revamped CLI

3 months ago

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Tech

Prefect Launches FastMCP Cloud, Promising One-Minute MCP Server Deployment

3 months ago

AI Modeling

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Oracle Integrates OpenAI’s GPT-5 as Enterprise Demand Surges

4 months ago

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OpenAI’s GPT-5 Impresses With 400k Context Window and Deeper Reasoning

4 months ago

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GPT-5 Jailbreak and AI Agent Attacks Fuel Cyber Threats by Russian, Chinese Groups Targeting Cloud and IoT Systems

4 months ago

Europe

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New AI Models Batter European Software Stocks, Fuel Rush Into Nvidia

4 months ago

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.66%chance

9531058

OptionVotes

YES

1413

972

Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]

Jul 31, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

8620327

OptionVotes

YES

2834

793

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8719354

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

AMD

Other

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Intel

Google

Will GPT-5 have fewer parameters than GPT-4? (1500M subsidy)

Jun 22, 6:13 AMDec 31, 10:29 AM

28.25%chance

10818771

OptionVotes

YES

3121

2545

Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?

Jan 8, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.56%chance

498601

OptionVotes

YES

2322

546

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.93%chance

286210

OptionVotes

YES

1201

946

GPT-6 released in 2026?

Aug 7, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.15%chance

334263

OptionVotes

YES

1398

715

Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released?

Apr 9, 1:19 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

66.27%chance

534031

OptionVotes

YES

1667

975

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

1657

1487

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

Nov 15, 11:14 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

57.93%chance

221154

OptionVotes

YES

1586

1220

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

1071

970

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

16527

OptionVotes

YES

1303

1298

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Prediction markets for GPT

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Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Will GPT-5 have fewer parameters than GPT-4? (1500M subsidy)

Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

GPT-6 released in 2026?

Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released?

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

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