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University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

7 months ago

OpenAI’s Altman Concedes GPT-5 Missteps, Vows Faster GPT-6

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OpenAI’s Altman Concedes GPT-5 Missteps, Vows Faster GPT-6

7 months ago

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7 months ago

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Prefect Launches FastMCP Cloud, Promising One-Minute MCP Server Deployment

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Oracle Integrates OpenAI’s GPT-5 as Enterprise Demand Surges

7 months ago

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OpenAI’s GPT-5 Impresses With 400k Context Window and Deeper Reasoning

7 months ago

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GPT-5 Jailbreak and AI Agent Attacks Fuel Cyber Threats by Russian, Chinese Groups Targeting Cloud and IoT Systems

7 months ago

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New AI Models Batter European Software Stocks, Fuel Rush Into Nvidia

7 months ago

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.15%chance

7675672

OptionVotes

YES

24633

4060

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.25%chance

9531274

OptionVotes

YES

1439

922

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8923604

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

AMD

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Google

Intel

Other

Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

Mar 31, 11:37 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.62%chance

13120586

OptionVotes

YES

1221

725

GPT-6 released in 2026?

Aug 7, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.01%chance

436333

OptionVotes

YES

1734

578

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.93%chance

286210

OptionVotes

YES

1201

946

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

1657

1487

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

29.29%chance

332007

OptionVotes

YES

1667

350

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

Nov 15, 11:14 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

57.93%chance

221154

OptionVotes

YES

1586

1220

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

YES

1124

534

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Nov 15, 6:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.59%chance

15791

OptionProbability

YES

1071

970

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

16527

OptionVotes

YES

1303

1298

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Prediction markets for GPT

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Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

GPT-6 released in 2026?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

In yottaFLOPs (10^24), how much compute will GPT-4 be trained with?

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

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