GPT News
Top stories
Prediction markets for GPT
Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?
Mar 31, 6:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.86%chance
19380226
OptionVotes
5178
711
OptionProbability
34
15
15
12
10
9
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
2806
1468
OptionProbability
20
19
15
13
9
7
7
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
4106
428
OptionProbability
64
15
6
5
5
3
2
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
Dec 13, 1:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
82.03%chance
4214355
OptionVotes
3608
700
Will GPT-5 have fewer parameters than GPT-4? (1500M subsidy)
Jun 22, 6:13 AMDec 31, 10:29 AM
17.09%chance
9612803
OptionVotes
4153
2667
OptionVotes
8670
1194
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
11.49%chance
286165
OptionVotes
1245
940
Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released?
Apr 9, 1:19 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
67.64%chance
513930
OptionVotes
1723
947
Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)
Nov 15, 11:14 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
57.93%chance
221154
OptionVotes
1586
1220
Latest stories
Latest stories
