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Top stories

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Prediction markets for Grammy Awards

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

15.01%chance

4120203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23793

4207

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?

Mar 12, 7:22 AMFeb 2, 1:29 PM

16.22%chance

25680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

Will there be a new EGOT by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 9:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.39%chance

10324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

368

272

Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026

Jul 8, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.28%chance

10243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

36

Will a primarily AI-generated work be nominated for a major entertainment award (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) in 2026?

Dec 21, 9:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.78%chance

6208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

37

Will Book of Mormon still be performing shows on Broadway on Jan 1st 2030?

Dec 4, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

64.83%chance

11149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

283

102

Best Album at 2027 Grammy Award ceremony?

Apr 13, 12:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

779

OptionProbability

Gorillaz, The Mountain

Other

Nick Jonas, Sunday Best

Charli XCX, Wuthering Heights

Mumford & Sons, Prizefighter

Alter Bridge, Alter Bridge

ASAP Rocky, Don't Be Dumb

21 Savage, What Happened to the Streets?

Snow tha Product, Before I Crash Out

NOFX, A to H

Cardio B, Am I the Drama?

Doja Cat, Vie

Tame Impala, Deadbeat

Justin Bieber, Swag II

Rob Thomas, All Night Days

Olivia Dean, The Art of Loving

Noah Kahan, The Great Divide

Bruno Mars, The Romantic

Taylor Swift, The Life of a Showgirl

Brandi Carlisle, Returning To Myself

9

9

8

8

8

7

7

6

6

6

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

Addison Rae releases new album in 2026?

Nov 21, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

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