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Prediction markets for Heat
OptionProbability
95
93
89
79
60
27
12
OptionProbability
75
63
51
39
21
11
8
4
Will at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
May 30, 5:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
9.01%chance
182312
OptionVotes
3178
315
Will global heating (directly or indirectly) lead to the collapse of advanced human civilization before 2100?
Apr 14, 6:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.75%chance
251676
OptionVotes
1069
953
OptionVotes
1707
526
OptionVotes
1275
567
OptionVotes
1310
743
OptionVotes
1473
821
OptionVotes
1283
630
OptionVotes
1179
618
Will GiveWell fund an intervention to avoid deaths from heat waves before 2028?
Jul 4, 10:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.45%chance
5220
OptionVotes
1213
824
🇬🇧 Will the BBC’s top story be about UK heat-related deaths by end of 2030
Aug 4, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.64%chance
150
OptionVotes
1048
954
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