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Prediction markets for Hold from Buy
Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29
Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM
19.69%chance
920668
OptionVotes
15088
92
Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second term?
Dec 24, 11:52 PMJan 21, 6:59 AM
18%chance
5710919
OptionVotes
2196
482
Will Elon Musk's investment in Twitter beat the NASDAQ?
Nov 20, 8:16 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM
15%chance
263960
OptionVotes
1962
686
Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?
Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM
13.4%chance
153312
OptionVotes
2542
393
Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?
May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM
45.36%chance
453009
OptionVotes
971
971
OptionVotes
1795
557
OptionProbability
143
70
High Class or Low Class? - Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "High Class" in 2026? (add answers)
Jan 16, 9:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
131498
OptionProbability
90
90
89
88
88
61
60
60
59
56
53
44
41
41
38
35
31
Will Elon get margin called on the loans he took against his Tesla holdings to buy Twitter?
Mar 29, 12:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5%chance
16826
OptionVotes
436
23
Robo-Palanquin - human-carrying robot available by mid 2034
May 21, 8:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
47.95%chance
5350
OptionVotes
1042
960
OptionProbability
51
28
17
4
Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?
Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM
56.94%chance
1150
OptionVotes
1150
870
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