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Top stories

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Authors

19

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Horizon

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6541470

OptionProbability

3-3.5 months

3.5-4 months

<3 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

5-5.5 months

>7 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

18

18

17

17

8

6

5

4

3

3

[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.99%chance

6814585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8681

3642

Will GPT-5.4 outperform Claude Opus 4.6 at METR 50% time horizon?

Mar 5, 9:16 PMApr 4, 8:15 PM

36%chance

9814432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

750

AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?

Dec 9, 4:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.89%chance

181726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1268

135

Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

Jan 5, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.62%chance

191656

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

773

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

Feb 18, 6:17 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

37.73%chance

111223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

778

Will "The "Length" of "Horizons"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 16, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?

Mar 6, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.08%chance

7457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

914

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

36.71%chance

8451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2028?

Dec 20, 1:40 PMJan 1, 1:38 PM

10378

OptionProbability

128+ hours

64-128 hours

32-64 hours

8-16 hours

16-32 hours

<8 hours

82

8

4

2

2

2

Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

986

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Fintech
DeFi
Blockchains
Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries
Authors
19
7 months ago

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