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Top stories

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Authors

19

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Horizon

Gemini 3's METR 50% time horizon

Aug 8, 11:03 PMDec 31, 12:02 AM

157154394

OptionProbability

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

3h - 3.5h

1.5h - 2h

3.5h - 4h

<1.5h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

>=12h

30

28

19

11

5

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?

Oct 9, 5:57 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

77.4%chance

11217909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1851

540

Claude Opus 4.5's METR-50 time horizon

Nov 24, 8:26 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

6410404

OptionProbability

2h-3h

3h-4h

4h-5h

5h-6h

6h-7h

< 2h

7h-8h

>=8h

43

42

7

4

2

1

1

1

How many Modern Horizons 3 cards will be banned in Modern by the end of 2025?

May 17, 2:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

178984

OptionProbability

At least one

At least two

At least three

At least four

100

100

12

3

R2's METR 50% time horizon

Aug 8, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

178004

OptionProbability

2h - 2.5h

1.5h - 2h

2.5h - 3h

3h - 3.5h

<1.5h

3.5h - 4h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

>=12h

24

23

17

9

7

6

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?

Nov 24, 7:29 PMDec 31, 7:28 PM

77.63%chance

192715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1863

537

Will GPT-5.1 have a longer METR time horizon than Gemini 3?

Nov 10, 6:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59%chance

251771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?

Oct 14, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.5%chance

211608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

983

Will there be a Pioneer Horizons set by end of 2025?

Jan 2, 4:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.29%chance

51070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

143

Will "The "Length" of "Horizons"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 16, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

38.29%chance

4405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

788

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Fintech
DeFi
Blockchains
Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries
Authors
19
3 months ago

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