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Prediction markets for Horizon
OptionProbability
25
20
17
14
7
5
4
3
3
2
OptionVotes
994
453
Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?
Jan 5, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
73.68%chance
262551
OptionVotes
1673
598
Horizon: METR 80% task horizon >= 16 hours before 2028?
Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
92.37%chance
22500
OptionVotes
3500
434
Polymarket has some METR time horizon market before EOY 2026?
Aug 1, 12:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.08%chance
72271
OptionVotes
2947
763
Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?
Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.28%chance
21260
OptionVotes
2260
816
OptionVotes
1530
833
Will "The "Length" of "Horizons"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 16, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
7.83%chance
2750
OptionVotes
1750
913
Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?
Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM
30.6%chance
9644
OptionVotes
1506
664
OptionProbability
55
30
7
4
2
2
Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.67%chance
3290
OptionVotes
1106
986
Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.88%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
941
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