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Top stories

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries

Authors

19

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Horizon

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7244004

OptionProbability

3-3.5 months

3.5-4 months

4-4.5 months

<3 months

4.5-5 months

5-5.5 months

>7 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

34

15

13

12

6

5

4

3

3

3

DeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon

Aug 8, 11:09 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

3113888

OptionProbability

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

7h - 8h

3.5h - 4h

3h - 3.5h

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

10h - 11h

<1.5h

1.5h - 2h

11h - 12h

>=12h

20

15

11

9

9

8

6

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September

May 10, 8:44 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

34.17%chance

508601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8297

4353

Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon

Apr 9, 4:49 PMDec 31, 5:43 PM

115915

OptionProbability

5-7.5

10-15

>50

40-50

30-40

25-30

20-25

15-20

7.5-10

<5

89

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

Jan 5, 11:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.42%chance

252298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1581

633

AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?

Dec 9, 4:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.54%chance

242160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

106

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

Feb 18, 6:17 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

22.71%chance

141961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1845

542

Will "The "Length" of "Horizons"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 16, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?

Mar 6, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.98%chance

11635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1398

866

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

36.71%chance

8451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

986

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Latest stories

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Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Fintech
DeFi
Blockchains
Aave Launches Horizon Letting Institutions Borrow Stablecoins With Tokenized Treasuries
Authors
19
10 months ago

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