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Top stories

OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training

OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training

Authors

16

6 months ago

Prediction markets for IMO

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

67.78%chance

14937942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10178

9346

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

43.51%chance

4420604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11751

8421

Will I make IMO ever

Sep 25, 2:44 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

35.7%chance

699170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2582

1545

Will AI get IMO Gold by 2025/Wipe out Humanity by 2030?

Aug 3, 10:10 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

198513

OptionProbability

Gets gold/does not wipe out humanity

Gets gold/wipes out humanity

Does not get gold/does not wipe out humanity

Does not get gold/wipes out humanity

95

3

1

0

Which country will win IMO 2026?

Jul 24, 2:00 AMJul 20, 4:00 PM

438397

OptionProbability

People's Republic of China

United States of America

Russian Federation

Republic of Korea

Other

83

12

3

1

1

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

503

Who will be IDN1 at IMO 2026?

Dec 8, 3:49 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

131902

OptionProbability

Steven Abiel Cahyono

Jenover Viano Yoshield

Danica Odelia

Jayden Jurianto

Chrysander Immanuel Ambrose Setiawan

Yusril Ihsan Adinatanegara

Matthew Ravanelli Tjiptono

Winston Christian Gani

Hansen Marcello Chandra

Brandon Ferdinand Gunawan

Other

Fernando Almer Renjiro

Janssen Samuel Halim

Ketut Andra Nugraha Utama

Neilson Huang

Herry Herdiana

Kenzie Al Hassan Satria

30

23

20

7

7

7

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will I ever make IMO?

Jun 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.78%chance

161667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

525

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

604

What will be the cutoff for gold in IMO 2026?

Jul 20, 5:20 AMJul 21, 6:59 AM

151634

OptionProbability

between 28 and 34 (inclusive)

between 21 and 27 (inclusive)

35 or more

20 or less

81

12

6

1

How many Hard Geometry Questions will appear in the 2025-2026 USA IMO Cycle?

Sep 25, 12:10 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

9443

OptionProbability

3-5

0-2

6-7

8-10

11+

62

54

6

4

2

How many years between AI winning IMO and Putnam?

Oct 28, 12:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7286

OptionProbability

0

Putnam first

1-3

> 3

52

45

2

1

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 11, 2025
Aug 11, 2025
Math
AI Modeling
Science
OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training
Authors
16
6 months ago

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