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Inauguration Day News

    Prediction markets for Inauguration Day

    Trump dies in office during his 2nd term?

    Jun 2, 11:07 PMJan 20, 11:44 PM
    15%chance
    24986066

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2382

    420

    OptionProbability

    January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

    January 20, 2026 (First year)

    January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

    February 20, 2025 (First month)

    April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

    71

    16

    0

    0

    0

    Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

    Nov 8, 12:33 AMAug 20, 3:59 AM
    2%chance
    2248274

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    39432

    1399

    OptionProbability

    Donald J. Trump

    J.D. Vance

    mike johnson

    Other

    Doug Burgum

    Tim Walz

    Joseph R. Biden

    Kamala Harris

    Gavin Newsom

    Ron DeSantis

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Nikki Haley

    Tim Scott

    70

    24

    2

    2

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will Joe Biden Survive Until Inauguration Day 2029?

    Apr 25, 11:37 PMJan 20, 6:00 PM
    68.38%chance
    7612516

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    983

    964

    OptionProbability

    If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

    If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

    If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term

    If Trump wins, will the USA conduct mass deportations before end of his term

    If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

    If Biden/dems wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

    If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life

    If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life

    If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029

    If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

    Biden will win AND Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

    If Biden/dems wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

    If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will go to prison before the end of his life

    If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

    If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term

    If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

    If Joe Biden Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Joe Biden's term

    If Biden/Dems wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

    If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

    If Biden wins, Biden will die before the end of his term

    If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton will be charged with a crime before the end of her life

    If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025

    If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives

    If Biden wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

    If Dems/Biden wins, Trump will concede within 1 month

    If Trump Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

    If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will concede within 1 week

    If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will die before the end of their term

    If Dems/Biden wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

    If Trump wins, Trump will die before the end of his term

    If Trump wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

    If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] will be censored, prosecuted, nationalized, shut down, or prevented by government action from operating freely & openly in the US.

    If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Israel/Palestine (troops on ground / in air)

    If Trump wins, Russia attacks Poland

    If Trump wins , the USA will leave NATO before the end of his term

    If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine (troops on ground / in air) during his time in office

    If Trump wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

    If Dems/Biden wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term

    If Trump wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term

    100

    100

    100

    100

    96

    95

    79

    75

    63

    59

    55

    48

    44

    44

    44

    43

    40

    34

    33

    31

    31

    30

    29

    27

    27

    26

    26

    22

    21

    20

    20

    19

    18

    17

    15

    11

    6

    1

    0

    OptionProbability

    Democrat

    Republican

    Other

    58

    41

    1

    OptionProbability

    Heavy Tariffs

    Substantial Increase in Oil Permitting

    Attempted prosecution of the "enemy within"/political opponents

    Large-scale deportations of immigrants

    Require and preside over increase in defense spending from allies

    Increased Aid for Israel

    Cut federal funding to schools that teach "critical race theory" and "transgender" matters

    Ending taxes on tips

    Expanding the child tax credit to $5000

    Repeal or substantially curtail the Inflation Reduction Act

    Dismantling the Environmental Protection Agency

    Reduce independence of the Fed

    Ending taxes on Social Security income

    Large Tax Cuts

    Ending taxes on foreign earned income

    Ending the war in Ukraine "before Inauguration Day"

    90

    89

    89

    84

    78

    72

    67

    61

    55

    45

    28

    21

    12

    10

    6

    0

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3343

    299

    Will the president elected in 2024 die before inauguration day 2029

    Mar 17, 10:31 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM
    21.16%chance
    151002

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    427

    190

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    135

    74

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