Independence Day News

YES

NO

One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK

5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way

Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies

The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties

Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies

Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies

One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party

3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way

Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party

No preference

It/its

Personalized to user

Sensitive to framing/context

They/them

She/her

He/him

Other

2026

2030 or later

2027

2028

YES

NO

YES

YES

Market chaos

Vacant House seats at start of term

Bonus underlying chaos

Bonus market chaos

Vacant Senate seats at start of term

Any member seated who was not the winner

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

New election ordered for any seat

Any major news organization retracts a call

Any member-elect changes parties

Senator not up for re-election changes party

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

Any election delayed

NO

Before the release of "The Winds of Winter"

Before 2035

Before 2030

Within the lifetime of George R.R. Martin

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2027