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Top stories

Russia and Ukraine Swap 146 Prisoners Each in UAE-Brokered Deal

Russia and Ukraine Swap 146 Prisoners Each in UAE-Brokered Deal

Authors

18

1 year ago

Trump Envoy Kellogg Joins Ukraine Independence Day in Kyiv

US Foreign Policy

Trump Envoy Kellogg Joins Ukraine Independence Day in Kyiv

Authors

3

1 year ago

Germany's Klingbeil Visits Kyiv, Commits to Security Guarantees for Ukraine

Germany's Klingbeil Visits Kyiv, Commits to Security Guarantees for Ukraine

Authors

14

1 year ago

US Foreign Policy

Giant Effigy of Donald Trump Burned at Nagpur’s Marbat Festival Amid 50% US Tariff Protest; Modi Responds in Independence Day Address

Authors

9

1 year ago

NASCAR Revives Chicagoland Speedway for 2026 Independence Day Cup Race

Authors

9

1 year ago

Balochistan Security Forces Foil August 14 Terrorist Attack, Arrest Lecturer Osman Qazi, Chief Minister Sarfaraz Bugti Confirms

Authors

5

1 year ago

Modi Convenes Top Officials to Map Next-Generation Economic Reforms

Authors

4

1 year ago

Modi Marks 79th Independence Day, Launches ₹1 Trillion Jobs Scheme, Demography Mission, and National Defense Amid US Tariffs

Authors

16

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Independence Day

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24642

5236

For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2026?

Dec 17, 12:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3429602

OptionProbability

04/01 April Fools Day

12/25 Christmas

Thanksgiving

Winter Solstice (or winter in general)

12/31 New Year's Eve

Fall equinox (or fall in general)

11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day

Summer Solstice (or summer in general)

Labor Day

10/31 Halloween

11/03 U.S. Election Day

Any Manifest

03/08 International Women's Day

The Oscars

03/14 Pi Day

Saint Patrick's Day

Spring equinox (or spring in general)

Easter

04/22 Earth Day

05/04 Star Wars Day

05/05 Cinco de Mayo

Mother's Day

05/27 Memorial Day

06/** Pride Month

Father's Day

Juneteenth

07/04 U.S. Independence Day

Cortina Winter Olympics

100

84

60

41

32

20

10

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Aug 27, 10:44 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

1616734

OptionProbability

Stephen Grugett, Manifold and MNX

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi

Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket

Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the CFTC

Terry Duffy, CME

92

70

46

27

12

10

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

60%chance

7412984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

817

Millennium: Prize Problem solution published before 2028 and verified?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

97.52%chance

267739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5120

87

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.61%chance

65770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12116

9018

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

Jul 8, 9:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12%chance

425032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2261

697

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.76%chance

43511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12331

8645

How biased is this coin?

Aug 25, 8:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

42.06%chance

463307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

874

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the S&P 500 close 2027 higher than it closed on November 3, 2026?

Oct 7, 2:05 AMDec 31, 9:00 PM

72.78%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

960

How many U.S. teaching positions will LPI estimate were vacant or filled by teachers without full certification in 2027?

Aug 8, 5:31 AMAug 2, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Under 400,000

400,000–424,999

425,000–449,999

450,000–474,999

475,000 or more

20

20

20

20

20

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