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Top stories

Russia and Ukraine Swap 146 Prisoners Each in UAE-Brokered Deal

Russia and Ukraine Swap 146 Prisoners Each in UAE-Brokered Deal

Authors

18

1 year ago

Trump Envoy Kellogg Joins Ukraine Independence Day in Kyiv

US Foreign Policy

Trump Envoy Kellogg Joins Ukraine Independence Day in Kyiv

Authors

3

1 year ago

Germany's Klingbeil Visits Kyiv, Commits to Security Guarantees for Ukraine

Germany's Klingbeil Visits Kyiv, Commits to Security Guarantees for Ukraine

Authors

14

1 year ago

US Foreign Policy

Giant Effigy of Donald Trump Burned at Nagpur’s Marbat Festival Amid 50% US Tariff Protest; Modi Responds in Independence Day Address

Authors

9

1 year ago

NASCAR Revives Chicagoland Speedway for 2026 Independence Day Cup Race

Authors

9

1 year ago

Balochistan Security Forces Foil August 14 Terrorist Attack, Arrest Lecturer Osman Qazi, Chief Minister Sarfaraz Bugti Confirms

Authors

5

1 year ago

Modi Convenes Top Officials to Map Next-Generation Economic Reforms

Authors

4

1 year ago

Modi Marks 79th Independence Day, Launches ₹1 Trillion Jobs Scheme, Demography Mission, and National Defense Amid US Tariffs

Authors

16

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Independence Day

For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2026?

Dec 17, 12:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3426077

OptionProbability

04/01 April Fools Day

12/25 Christmas

10/31 Halloween

11/03 U.S. Election Day

Thanksgiving

Winter Solstice (or winter in general)

12/31 New Year's Eve

Fall equinox (or fall in general)

Labor Day

11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day

Summer Solstice (or summer in general)

Any Manifest

03/08 International Women's Day

The Oscars

03/14 Pi Day

Saint Patrick's Day

Spring equinox (or spring in general)

Easter

04/22 Earth Day

05/04 Star Wars Day

05/05 Cinco de Mayo

Mother's Day

05/27 Memorial Day

06/** Pride Month

Father's Day

Juneteenth

07/04 U.S. Independence Day

Cortina Winter Olympics

100

86

78

65

60

41

32

30

10

10

9

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

66%chance

7411951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1394

718

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

Jul 8, 9:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.44%chance

415000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2520

665

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.76%chance

43511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12331

8645

How biased is this coin?

Aug 25, 8:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

43.57%chance

463278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

903

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.58%chance

42706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12128

9013

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will any AI model released before 2028 reach an Epoch general ECI of at least 200?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.83%chance

3350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6346

4665

Will a Millennium Prize Problem resolution be published before 2028 and subsequently verified?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

40.67%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

984

How many U.S. teaching positions will LPI estimate were vacant or filled by teachers without full certification in 2027?

Aug 8, 5:31 AMAug 2, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Under 400,000

400,000–424,999

425,000–449,999

450,000–474,999

475,000 or more

20

20

20

20

20

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