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Top stories

Russia and Ukraine Swap 146 Prisoners Each in UAE-Brokered Deal

Russia and Ukraine Swap 146 Prisoners Each in UAE-Brokered Deal

Authors

18

7 months ago

Trump Envoy Kellogg Joins Ukraine Independence Day in Kyiv

US Foreign Policy

Trump Envoy Kellogg Joins Ukraine Independence Day in Kyiv

Authors

3

7 months ago

Germany's Klingbeil Visits Kyiv, Commits to Security Guarantees for Ukraine

Germany's Klingbeil Visits Kyiv, Commits to Security Guarantees for Ukraine

Authors

14

7 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Giant Effigy of Donald Trump Burned at Nagpur’s Marbat Festival Amid 50% US Tariff Protest; Modi Responds in Independence Day Address

Authors

9

7 months ago

NASCAR Revives Chicagoland Speedway for 2026 Independence Day Cup Race

Authors

9

7 months ago

Balochistan Security Forces Foil August 14 Terrorist Attack, Arrest Lecturer Osman Qazi, Chief Minister Sarfaraz Bugti Confirms

Authors

5

7 months ago

Modi Convenes Top Officials to Map Next-Generation Economic Reforms

Authors

4

7 months ago

Modi Marks 79th Independence Day, Launches ₹1 Trillion Jobs Scheme, Demography Mission, and National Defense Amid US Tariffs

Authors

16

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Independence Day

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 15, 10:37 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

8450261

OptionProbability

Democratic House and Senate

Democratic House, Republican Senate

Republican House and Senate

Republican House, Democratic Senate

Other

48

40

11

0

0

Will Justin Trudeau be Canada's Prime Minister on October 10, 2026?

Sep 2, 7:17 PMOct 11, 3:59 AM

1%chance

1819748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2026?

Dec 17, 12:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2610562

OptionProbability

12/25 Christmas

10/31 Halloween

Thanksgiving

Easter

11/03 U.S. Election Day

06/** Pride Month

Fall equinox (or fall in general)

Winter Solstice (or winter in general)

04/01 April Fools Day

12/31 New Year's Eve

Any Manifest

05/27 Memorial Day

07/04 U.S. Independence Day

05/04 Star Wars Day

Juneteenth

Spring equinox (or spring in general)

04/22 Earth Day

Mother's Day

Father's Day

Labor Day

11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day

05/05 Cinco de Mayo

Summer Solstice (or summer in general)

03/08 International Women's Day

The Oscars

03/14 Pi Day

Saint Patrick's Day

Cortina Winter Olympics

84

83

66

50

50

46

37

37

34

32

30

20

20

18

15

12

10

10

10

10

10

9

9

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

74%chance

6610437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1688

593

Will the Epstein letter to Nassar be proven to be real?

Dec 24, 4:42 AMJan 1, 4:41 AM

6%chance

176187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3959

253

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

Jul 8, 9:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.88%chance

394493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2013

734

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

72.83%chance

284419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

611

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

113508

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

180+ days

365+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

100

91

77

53

41

0

How biased is this coin?

Aug 25, 8:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

43.6%chance

423183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

903

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Is Intel going to be acquired before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60%chance

771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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