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Top stories

Microsoft Tests AI Semantic File Search in Windows 11 Copilot

Authors

11

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Insider

Anyone indicted for insider trading or market manipulation for 4/7/25 events?

Apr 7, 2:51 PMMar 1, 3:50 PM

3.52%chance

266473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5236

191

Will Donald Trump ever see the inside of a JAIL Cell? (Not a prison cell)

Aug 15, 11:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.73%chance

305770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2663

417

Will Donald Trump ever see the inside of a PRISON Cell? (Not a jail cell)

Aug 15, 11:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.22%chance

255188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2911

455

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

16%chance

113133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2293

437

Was 9/11 an inside job? (2100)

Oct 19, 3:51 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

6.93%chance

262889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1967

864

Will Japan have a general AI company with a valuation of $1 bil+ primarily doing research inside of its borders by 2028?

Jan 2, 7:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.77%chance

342241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

785

Will New Zealand allow any nuclear bombs or nuclear reactors inside its territory before 2030?

Dec 12, 11:49 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

9.73%chance

272159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

558

Will there be an “Inside Out 3” by 1st January 2035?

Jun 26, 11:57 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82.64%chance

71455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2182

458

Do we live inside a black hole?

Apr 2, 7:10 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.69%chance

341037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

921

What fraction of knowledge is inside the affine hull of existing knowledge?

Dec 4, 12:51 PMDec 5, 12:38 PM

22.08%chance

10882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

532

Who is the best Manifold user? (forecasting skill, fun and nice, insider trading)

Jan 30, 12:24 PMMar 1, 12:19 PM

8836

OptionProbability

Other

@Tumbles

@Eliza

@Robincvgr

@Joshua

@Bayesian

@IsaacKing

@SemioticRivalry

@ziddletwix

@bens

37

12

12

9

7

6

6

4

4

3

Has there been / will there be any covert Israeli 🇮🇱 sabotage activity inside Iran 🇮🇷 after the June ceasefire?

Jul 24, 1:59 AMJun 30, 6:59 PM

70.7%chance

7569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1553

644

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Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Software
AI Products
Tech
Microsoft Tests AI Semantic File Search in Windows 11 Copilot
Authors
11
6 months ago

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