International Mathematical Olympiad News

OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training

11 months ago

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

109171214

OptionVotes

YES

81796

26531

Which country will win IMO 2026?

Jul 24, 2:00 AMJul 20, 4:00 PM

8915938

OptionProbability

People's Republic of China

United States of America

Russian Federation

Republic of Korea

Other

How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?

Jan 2, 7:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

445107

OptionProbability

3-4

5-8

When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?

Aug 8, 7:26 PMAug 1, 9:34 PM

265001

OptionProbability

2027

2030 or later

2026

2028

2029

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:09 AMJan 2, 12:35 AM

264773

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2024

100

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACGN) will be the easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Dec 15, 2:56 AMDec 29, 5:59 AM

203945

OptionProbability

Geometry

Algebra

Combinatorics

Number Theory

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Jun 26, 6:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93795

OptionProbability

< 2 years

< 1 year

< 4 years

< 10 years

< 1 month

< 25 years

< 4 months

>= 25 years

< 1 week

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.67%chance

283035

OptionVotes

YES

1136

935

What years will AlphaGeometry win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

102043

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2026

2027

2024

2025

Will I ever make IMO?

Jun 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.52%chance

181676

OptionVotes

YES

1976

521

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.11%chance

9884

OptionVotes

YES

364

103

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACN) will be the second easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Jan 17, 11:18 PMDec 30, 10:59 PM

8128

OptionProbability

Algebra

Number Theory

Combinatorics

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Aug 11, 2025
Aug 11, 2025
Math
AI Modeling
Science
OpenAI Reasoning System Wins Gold at 2025 IOI, Ranking Sixth Among 330 Humans and First Among AI Without Specific Training
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11 months ago

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Prediction markets for International Mathematical Olympiad

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Which country will win IMO 2026?

How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?

When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACGN) will be the easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

What years will AlphaGeometry win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Will I ever make IMO?

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACN) will be the second easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Telegram