International Mathematical Olympiad News
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Prediction markets for International Mathematical Olympiad
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90.41%chance
198384813
OptionVotes
155442
22908
OptionProbability
100
100
96
96
95
0
OptionProbability
71
12
7
5
4
Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Jun 26, 6:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
94215
OptionProbability
42
14
12
10
8
8
3
2
1
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
19.56%chance
334011
OptionVotes
1018
672
What IMO Shortlist topic (ACGN) will be the easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?
Dec 15, 2:56 AMDec 29, 5:59 AM
203945
OptionProbability
99
1
0
0
Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?
Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
3%chance
122923
OptionVotes
757
15
OptionProbability
13
12
10
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1808
569
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90.4%chance
4927
OptionVotes
301
48
Will the IMO (International Mathematical Olympiad) be held in this country?
Jul 23, 12:49 AMJul 23, 12:41 AM
9754
OptionProbability
98
92
90
90
85
What IMO Shortlist topic (ACN) will be the second easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?
Jan 17, 11:18 PMDec 30, 10:59 PM
8128
OptionProbability
48
39
14
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