International Mathematical Olympiad News
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Prediction markets for International Mathematical Olympiad
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.82%chance
99161555
OptionVotes
111105
17339
OptionProbability
84
12
3
2
1
How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?
Jan 2, 7:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
435087
OptionProbability
72
18
6
2
2
1
OptionProbability
100
96
96
96
95
0
OptionProbability
52
20
16
10
3
Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Jun 26, 6:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
93794
OptionProbability
30
29
15
12
4
4
3
2
1
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10.05%chance
262827
OptionVotes
1313
914
OptionVotes
100
100
OptionProbability
13
12
11
10
0
0
OptionVotes
1976
521
Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?
Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
85.11%chance
9884
OptionVotes
364
103
What IMO Shortlist topic (ACN) will be the second easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?
Jan 17, 11:18 PMDec 30, 10:59 PM
8128
OptionProbability
48
39
14
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