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Prediction markets for Internet

Major internet outage due to undersea cables breaking by end of 2026?

Aug 3, 12:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

71.98%chance

303594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4496

3654

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

75.46%chance

212517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1753

570

What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?

Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

76.18%chance

621913

OptionProbability

NO

YES

7104

5981

Will Rutracker be online in the Internet after 3 years?

Feb 18, 7:53 PMFeb 18, 10:59 PM

87.07%chance

351428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1731

820

Will the Internet Archive be available in 2046?

Mar 19, 12:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

78.07%chance

381136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2014

1765

Will someone have a chip implanted in their head that can access the internet at 16KB/s before Elon Musk dies

Mar 28, 11:31 AMDec 5, 4:59 AM

56.63%chance

18948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

376

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

Will Hachette v. Internet Archive be heard by the Supreme Court?

Mar 25, 4:26 AMJan 1, 1:00 PM

20.23%chance

22711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

806

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

67.82%chance

17695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

899

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045

Jan 28, 7:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.99%chance

17567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

887

Will there be internet service on the Moon at the end of 2040?

Mar 28, 4:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.03%chance

21446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

945

Will the US pass a bill focused on stopping internet piracy by the end of 2025?

Feb 18, 7:37 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21.36%chance

15278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

958

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