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Prediction markets for Internet
Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?
Oct 21, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.53%chance
356596
OptionVotes
11161
8960
AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
82.69%chance
252991
OptionVotes
2185
458
Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?
Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.86%chance
371969
OptionVotes
1085
902
What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?
Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM
75.61%chance
631963
OptionProbability
6946
6031
By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?
Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
74.18%chance
221238
OptionVotes
1119
937
OptionVotes
2064
1751
Will there be internet service on Mars at the end of 2060?
Mar 28, 4:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
44.82%chance
231162
OptionVotes
1078
869
Will someone have a chip implanted in their head that can access the internet at 16KB/s before Elon Musk dies
Mar 28, 11:31 AMDec 5, 4:59 AM
56.63%chance
18948
OptionVotes
1218
376
Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?
Aug 5, 6:50 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM
36.78%chance
12846
OptionVotes
1311
763
Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?
Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM
74.79%chance
26735
OptionVotes
998
935
Will there be internet service on the Moon at the end of 2040?
Mar 28, 4:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
64.14%chance
22708
OptionVotes
1291
788
Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045
Jan 28, 7:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
58.63%chance
19627
OptionVotes
1026
947
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