Internet of Things News

1 year ago

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

28550

2982

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.26%chance

11730920

OptionVotes

YES

2407

416

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

1377

1032

Will Trump restrict porn?

Nov 7, 2:45 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

13.13%chance

5912259

OptionVotes

YES

2572

389

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

438642

OptionVotes

YES

1224

780

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

58.71%chance

214219

OptionVotes

YES

1192

839

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

89%chance

61849

OptionVotes

YES

2844

352

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

74.18%chance

221238

OptionVotes

YES

1119

937

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

1123

765

What will the top score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős (68 open Erdős problems) be on November 7, 2026?

Oct 8, 8:49 AMNov 8, 4:59 AM

9329

OptionProbability

4% to under 6% (3–4 solved)

9% or higher (7+ solved)

Under 4% (no model beats GPT-6 Astra's 2 of 68)

6% to under 9% (5–6 solved)

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

37%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

1305

766

Will The Internet of Things Ever Become a Thing Again?

Apr 18, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.89%chance

572

OptionVotes

YES

178

130

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Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Will Trump restrict porn?

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

What will the top score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős (68 open Erdős problems) be on November 7, 2026?

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Will The Internet of Things Ever Become a Thing Again?

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