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Prediction markets for Investor Day
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think AI-caused extinction is more likely?
Jan 30, 5:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
58.8%chance
553918
OptionVotes
1035
875
After GPT 5 is launched, will Microsoft's stock rise in the following two weeks?
Jan 26, 1:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52%chance
31935
OptionVotes
1256
556
OptionProbability
86
80
71
70
Will the Tumbles Financial Complex 2.0 be late to pay back a loan?
May 1, 6:32 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM
72%chance
11251
OptionVotes
160
62
IDX Composite drops more than 5% within 7 days conditional on Sri Mulyani's departure
Mar 13, 3:15 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM
86.21%chance
4178
OptionVotes
250
40
Will Aurora Innovation's self-driving trucks drive 100M miles by March 2027?
Mar 16, 8:43 AMMar 15, 6:59 AM
21.31%chance
5130
OptionVotes
290
97
OptionVotes
100
100
OptionVotes
131
76
OptionVotes
111
90
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