OptionProbability
2025 [resolves on Jan 1st]
The death of Jimmy Carter
The Paris Olympics closing ceremony
The launch of GPT-5
The release of the iPhone 16
Both the 2024 US & UK General Elections
Bitcoin reaches $100k
Elon Musk has another child
GTA 6 release
The death of Joe Biden
The war in Ukraine comes to an end
A Category 5 hurricane hits the US
Peak Oil Demand
The Enhanced Games opening ceremony
Man’s return to the moon
EV sales in the USA overtake ICE
Will Smith attends the Oscars
Weak AGI achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
AGI is achieved as judged by Manifold
Bitcoin falls to $30k
A "superintelligent oracle" achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
Donald Trump goes to jail
Prince William and Kate divorce
Female US President
100
99
95
85
84
52
49
43
42
34
33
25
17
9
7
6
5
iPhone 16
iPhone 18
iPhone 19+
iPhone 17
iPhone 15
39
28
4
1
By 2027 (iPhone 19)
By 2030 (iPhone 22)
By 2029 (iPhone 21)
By 2028 (iPhone 20)
By 2026 (iPhone 18)
No changes until after 2030
By 2024 (iPhone 16)
By 2025 (iPhone 17)
83
81
80
76
50
0
