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Isaac News

    Prediction markets for Isaac

    OptionProbability

    Before the end of 2026

    Before the end of Jun 2025

    Before the end of Dec 2025

    Before the end of Apr 2024

    Before the end of May 2024

    Before the end of Jun 2024

    Before the end of July 2024

    Before the end of Aug 2024

    Before the end of Sep 2024

    Before the end of Oct 2024

    Before the end of Nov 2024

    Before the end of Dec 2024

    4

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What will be true about Isaac's job market?

    Aug 4, 11:24 PMJan 1, 12:18 AM
    162720

    OptionProbability

    Someone gets interviewed by EOY 2026

    Someone gets hired by EOY 2026

    Anyone resolves YES

    Someone pitches credibly for a sales role

    30+ people add themselves as candidates

    100

    38

    27

    25

    14

    Isaac King's Guessing Game

    Nov 4, 10:40 PMOct 14, 8:16 AM
    292002

    OptionProbability

    Isaac likes experimenting

    You'd say you're more of a dog person than a cat person

    You've been in a desert once

    You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

    You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

    You've been vegetarian for >1 continuous year

    (if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

    You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

    You're older than me (I'm 23)

    you consider your partner to be your best friend as well

    You're younger than 30

    You think it's fine for minors to date adults

    You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

    You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

    You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

    you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

    The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

    You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

    You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

    You've spent a day in which you read a (single) book (or similar) for 10+ hrs

    You're an effective altruist

    You are qorrenqial

    You've read the CFAR Handbook

    You've held a gun in your hands before

    You've fired a gun at a target before

    You've jumped out of a plane

    You have attended some program or camp organised by MIRI

    You've knowingly misresolved a market once even though you didn't get called out for it

    You've been to a nightclub

    You've passed out from drinking alcohol

    You like to eat out more than you like to cook and eat

    You've worked with LED strip lights

    You've wondered what it'd be like to have a different name

    *You* have more than 6 stuffed animals

    You know >4 programming langauges

    You know >= 3 natural languages (in at least one of reading, speaking, or hearing understanding)

    You've felt desires to purchase a car with mana

    You have a political belief that'd cause at least one close friend to cut ties if they knew about it

    You wish you spent significantly less time on Manifold

    You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

    You prefer if these answers start with "You" than with "isaac"

    You feel you're the smartest member of your close family (mother, father, siblings)

    You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

    You have once made a joke about your name's similarity with Martin Luther King Jr.

    You think the effective altruism community is ineffective at PR and image management

    You have done some coding in python

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    90

    77

    70

    53

    49

    49

    41

    32

    30

    20

    8

    5

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    574

    98

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    499

    20

    Will Isaac del Toro win a Grand Tour before 2028?

    May 27, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    32.03%chance
    191164

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    146

    69

    OptionProbability

    Jim wins the bet, Isaac pays up

    Isaac wins the bet, Jim pays up

    Isaac wins the bet, Jim does not pay up

    Jim wins the bet, Isaac does not pay up

    60

    37

    2

    1

    OptionProbability

    Isaac del Toro

    Paul seixas

    Paul Magnier

    Lenny Martinez

    55

    34

    7

    4

    OptionProbability

    2

    1

    0

    3+

    61

    19

    10

    10

    Isaac Newton stock

    Nov 13, 4:59 PM
    552

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    132

    76

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