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Prediction markets for Jan

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

31.05%chance

165276698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148701

67433

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

15%chance

114226036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

1122

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

3.7%chance

4671471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45366

5620

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)

Jul 5, 9:04 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

84.53%chance

8738895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4206

1474

Will Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?

Jul 27, 7:08 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.5%chance

12229978

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

947

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

Jun 14, 4:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

99%chance

2824011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

May 14, 1:21 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

20.7%chance

9113379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1498

1157

Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?

Jan 8, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

466093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

682

Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027

Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

51.39%chance

456081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

973

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

22.63%chance

12405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2683

2566

Will the % chance of this question be positive or negative on Jan 1 2026.

Jan 16, 7:19 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38.52%chance

6147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

What month (starting Jan 2023) will the next Dresden Files book (Twelve Months) come out?

Jul 25, 3:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.42%chance

3142

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2606

2433

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