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Prediction markets for Jan
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?
Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
44.8%chance
202330854
OptionVotes
110653
90434
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM
8%chance
117231827
OptionVotes
3197
957
Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?
Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 25, 7:59 AM
2.68%chance
4983359
OptionVotes
58604
5190
OptionVotes
1120
857
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)
Jul 5, 9:04 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
75.3%chance
9139606
OptionVotes
2867
1801
Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?
Jan 11, 6:45 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
26.61%chance
10333248
OptionVotes
1486
1263
OptionVotes
9950
101
Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?
May 14, 1:21 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM
20.27%chance
9113409
OptionVotes
1528
1149
Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027
Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM
56.96%chance
578947
OptionVotes
1150
869
Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?
Jan 8, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.56%chance
498601
OptionVotes
2322
546
Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?
Feb 2, 3:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM
74.84%chance
715649
OptionVotes
1731
1114
"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"
Apr 1, 4:08 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM
19.62%chance
14805
OptionVotes
3083
2459
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