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Prediction markets for Journal
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
36.31%chance
5711924
OptionVotes
1395
643
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
38.67%chance
8410219
OptionVotes
1317
626
What will be the outcome of Trump's lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal?
Jul 19, 7:42 AMJan 1, 8:41 AM
434822
OptionProbability
79
20
2
By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM
69.53%chance
342567
OptionVotes
1647
426
OptionVotes
1355
806
Will "An Alignment Journal: Coming Soon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 3, 11:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
6.43%chance
41240
OptionVotes
2100
886
Will Nectome's human preservation protocol be published in a peer-reviewed journal by end of 2028?
Mar 18, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
72.88%chance
71070
OptionVotes
1639
610
Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.42%chance
15577
OptionVotes
1455
887
100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?
May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM
51.19%chance
3241
OptionVotes
1024
976
Will Environment Health Perspectives (https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/) publish new journal articles again by July 1,2026?
Apr 30, 2:19 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
52%chance
577
OptionVotes
104
96
Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?
Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM
36%chance
270
OptionVotes
133
75
Will elicit.com retrieve data from supplementary data of journal articles by EOY 2026?
Feb 22, 6:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
59.02%chance
110
OptionVotes
80
62
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