Journal News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Journal
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
76.02%chance
6514148
OptionVotes
1660
648
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
65.35%chance
10012641
OptionVotes
1169
822
By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM
95.9%chance
394959
OptionVotes
3904
99
Will Nectome's human preservation protocol be published in a peer-reviewed journal by end of 2028?
Mar 18, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
84.28%chance
102193
OptionVotes
2315
432
OptionVotes
1355
806
Will "An Alignment Journal: Coming Soon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 3, 11:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
6.43%chance
41240
OptionVotes
2100
886
Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.42%chance
15577
OptionVotes
1455
887
Will scientific journal publisher MDPI have a better reputation by 2027?
Sep 2, 9:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
33%chance
390
OptionVotes
156
127
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
62.39%chance
387
OptionVotes
114
91
In which journal will this paper be accepted in 2026? (Milos and Pérez)
Apr 7, 2:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
280
OptionProbability
69
31
Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?
Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM
36%chance
270
OptionVotes
133
75
Will elicit.com retrieve data from supplementary data of journal articles by EOY 2026?
Feb 22, 6:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
59.02%chance
110
OptionVotes
80
62
Latest stories
Latest stories