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Prediction markets for Journal
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
37.47%chance
5511514
OptionVotes
1365
660
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
35.93%chance
809897
OptionVotes
1385
586
What will be the outcome of Trump's lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal?
Jul 19, 7:42 AMJan 1, 8:41 AM
434572
OptionProbability
72
26
2
By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM
69.53%chance
342567
OptionVotes
1647
426
OptionVotes
1153
901
Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.42%chance
15577
OptionVotes
1455
887
100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?
May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM
51.19%chance
3241
OptionVotes
1024
976
Will scientific journal publisher MDPI have a better reputation by 2027?
Sep 2, 9:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
33%chance
390
OptionVotes
156
127
Will Environment Health Perspectives (https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/) publish new journal articles again by July 1,2026?
Apr 30, 2:19 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
52%chance
577
OptionVotes
104
96
Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?
Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM
36%chance
270
OptionVotes
133
75
Will supplementary data and table in journal articles be part of GPT5?
Apr 11, 5:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.05%chance
366
OptionVotes
156
58
Will elicit.com retrieve data from supplementary data of journal articles by EOY 2026?
Feb 22, 6:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
59.02%chance
110
OptionVotes
80
62
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