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Kimi News

    Prediction markets for Kimi

    OptionProbability

    (JAP) Red flag during Qualyfing session

    [BAH] Safety car during the race

    [BAH] Yuki Tsunoda scores points

    [BAH] Bearman scores points

    [SAU] Safety Car during the race

    [SAU] Tsunoda makes it into Q3

    [SAU] Leclerc will get top 4 in the race

    [MIA] Norris qualifies ahead of Piastri (main race qualifying)

    [MIA] Non-Mclaren pole in Sprint Qualifying

    [MIA] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris in GP

    [MIA] Williams double points in the main GP

    [MIA] Over 3.5 Drivers DNF in the main race

    [MIA] Both McLaren on the podium

    [IMO] Physical Safety Car during the race

    [IMO] Max Verstappen Podium Finish

    [IMO] Colapinto replaces Doohan in at least one session

    [IMO] Piastri qualifies ahead of Norris

    [IMO] Tsunoda scores point(s)

    [MON] Red Flag during Qualifying

    [MON] Pole Sitter wins the race

    [MON] At least one impeding penalty during qualifying

    [MON] 4+ pit stops in the first 5 laps

    [MON] Norris scores more points than Piastri

    [MON] Yellow flag on the 1st lap of the race

    [MON] Both Ferraris finish in top 5

    [SPA] Both Ferraris reach Q3

    [SPA] McLaren Pole Position

    [SPA] McLaren 1-2 (race)

    [CAN] Physical Safety Car during the race

    [CAN] Red Flag during Qualifying

    [CAN] Stroll starts the race

    [CAN] Impeding penalty during Qualifying (at least 1)

    [CAN] Mercedes Podium

    [CAN] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10

    [CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

    [AUT] Physical Safety Car during the race

    [AUT] Yellow flag first lap

    [AUT] Bortoleto reaches Q3

    [AUT] McLaren 1-2

    [AUT] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

    [AUT] Bortoleto finishes top 10

    [GBR] Yellow Flag first lap

    [GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race

    [GBR] McLaren 1-2 (race)

    [GBR] Non-McLaren pole position

    [GBR] VSR virtual safety car during the race.

    [GBR] Gasly finishes in top 10

    [BEL] Physical Safety Car during the main race

    [BEL] McLaren double podium (main race)

    [BEL] Intermediate or wet weather tyres needed for the main race

    [BEL] A Ferrari driver doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)

    [BEL] Bortoleto reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

    [BEL] Leclerc podium (main race)

    [BEL] Bortoleto in the top 10 (main race)

    [BEL] Hamilton top 10 (main race)

    [HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race

    [HUN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the race

    [HUN] Antonelli finishes in the points

    [HUN] Bortoleto finishes in the points

    [HUN] Both Aston Martins score points

    [HUN] Leclerc is in first position at the end of lap 1

    [NLD] Physical Safety Car during the race

    [NLD] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

    [NLD] Verstappen on the podium

    [NLD] Tsunoda finishes in top 10

    [ITA] New track record Set in Qualifying

    [ITA] Tsunoda reaches Q3

    [ITA] Non-McLaren pole position

    [ITA] Hamilton finishes in top 6

    [AZE] Physical Safety Car during the race

    [AZE] Red flag during qualifying

    [AZE] Yellow flag First Lap main race

    [AZE] Norris and or Piastri Fail to finish due to an accident

    [AZE] Tsunoda reaches Q3

    [AZE] Non-McLaren pole position

    [AZE] Mercedes on the podium (at least 1 driver)

    [SGP] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

    [SGP] Bearman finishes in top 10 (race)

    [COTA] Yellow flag first lap (main race)

    [COTA] Physical Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car during the main race

    [COTA] Verstappen wins the sprint race

    [COTA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (main race)

    [COTA] Leclerc finishes on the podium (main race)

    [COTA] Bearman finishes in top 10 (main race)

    [COTA] Hulkenberg finishes on top 10 (main race)

    [MEX] all 3 tyre compounds used in main race

    [MEX] Bearman finishes in top 10 (race)

    [MEX] At least one Ferrari on the podium

    [MEX] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

    [MEX] Max finishes 3rd

    [BRA] Physical Safety Car during the main race

    [BRA] yellow flag first lap (main race)

    [BRA] The same driver wins the Sprint and the GP

    [BRA] McLaren pole in the SPRINT qualifying

    [BRA] Antonelli Sprint podium

    [BRA] Verstappen finishes the main race in the top 6

    [BRA] Antonelli podium in the main race

    [BRA] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 in the main race

    [LAS]Verstappen finishes ahead of both McLarens

    [LAS] Yellow flag first lap

    [LAS] All 3 tyre compounds used in main race

    [LAS] Sainz finishes in top 5 (race)

    [LAS] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10 (race)

    [QAT] Verstappen scores more points than Norris during the whole weekend

    [QAT] Alonso scores points in the sprint race

    [QAT] Alonso in top 10 (main race)

    [ABU] NON-McLaren pole position

    [ABU] A Ferrari doesn't reach Q3

    [ABU] Physical Safety Car during the race

    [ABU] All 3 tyre compounds used in main race

    Leave it open for upcoming GP

    [ABU] Yellow flag first lap

    [ABU] A driver not in WDC contention podiums

    [MIA] Safety car in the main race

    [ABU] Three different teams on the podium

    [ABU] Verstappen, Piastri or Norris is involved in a collision causing him to DNF (engine, power unit problems etc. do not count)

    [ABU] Impeding penalty during qualifying

    [BEL] Yellow flag first lap (main race)

    [ABU] A driver not in WDC contention wins the race

    (JAP) Safety car during the race

    (JAP) A rookie crashes and cannot finish the race (technical problems at the gearbox, power unit etc. won't count, it needs to be a crash)

    (JAP) Yuki Tsunoda scores points

    [JAP] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda

    [BAH] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda

    [BAH] Ferrari on the podium (at least 1 driver)

    [SAU] Mercedes podium (at least 1 driver)

    [SAU] McLaren double podium

    [SAU] Bearman scores points

    [MIA] 🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli wins the sprint race

    [MIA] 🟥 Red flag during main race qualifying

    [MIA] Antonelli on the Podium

    [IMO] Piastri scores more points than Norris

    [IMO] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

    [IMO] Aston Martin both drivers score points

    [MON] Physical Safety Car during the race

    [MON] Both Mercedes score points (i.e. top 10)

    [SPA] Virtual Safety Car during the race

    [SPA] Yellow flag first lap

    [SPA] Tsunoda goes into Q3

    [SPA] Sauber reaches Q3 (at least one driver)

    [SPA] someone receives a penalty for obstructing during qualifying

    [SPA] Tsunoda finishes in top 10 (race)

    [SPA] Hamilton finishes ahead of Leclerc (race)

    [SPA] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 (race)

    [CAN] Yellow flag first lap

    [CAN] Tsunoda reaches Q3

    [CAN] Both Williams reach Q3

    [CAN] Williams scores over 5.5 WCC points

    [AUT] 3 different teams on the podium

    [AUT] Tsunoda reaches Q3

    [AUT] Stroll reaches Q3

    [AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying

    [AUT] Williams scores points (at least one driver)

    [AUT] Verstappen penalty for forcing another driver off the track or a collision.

    [GBR] Both HAAS cars finish in the points (top 10)

    [GBR] Tsunoda reaches Q3

    [GBR] Williams reaches Q3 (at least 1 driver)

    [GBR] At least one Ferrari on the podium

    [GBR] Bearman finishes in top 10

    [GBR] At least one Mercedes on the podium

    [BEL] Two or more cars DNF (main race)

    [BEL] Ferrari in top 3 in the Sprint Qualifying (at least 1 driver)

    [BEL] McLaren 1-2 in the Sprint race

    [BEL] Verstappen gets a penalty in either the sprint or main race

    [BEL] Leclerc on the podium in the sprint race

    [BEL] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)

    [BEL] main race is cancelled/aborted

    [HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race

    [HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)

    [HUN] Tsunoda reaches Q3

    [HUN] Yellow flag first lap

    [HUN] At least two drivers DNF

    [NLD] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)

    [NLD] Exactly 18 cars finish the race

    Hamilton finishes in top 7

    [NLD] Yellow flag first lap

    [NLD] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race

    [NLD] Tsunoda reaches Q3

    [NLD] Antonelli reaches Q3

    [NLD] Both Williams reach Q3

    [NLD] Red flag during qualifying

    [ITA] Physical Safety during the race

    [ITA] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least one)

    [ITA] Yellow flag first lap

    [ITA] Wet or intermediate tyres needed in Race

    [ITA] Both Williams reach Q3

    [ITA] Ferrari on the podium (at least one driver)

    [AZE] New lap record in Qualifying

    [AZE] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton

    [AZE] 3 or more DNF (race)

    [AZE] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the race.

    [SGP] Physical Safety Car during the race

    [SGP] Red flag during qualifying

    [SGP] Yellow flag first lap

    [SGP] 1 or more teams loses both cars in the race

    [SGP] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race

    [SGP] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)

    [SGP] Tsunoda reaches Q3

    [SGP] Antonelli on the podium

    [SGP] Kick Sauber scores points

    [COTA] McLaren pole position in the SPRINT qualifying

    [COTA] Hulkenberg top 5 in the sprint race

    [COTA] Tsunoda reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

    [COTA] McLaren pole position in the main race qualifying

    [COTA] A Ferrari doesn't reach Q3 in the main race qualifying

    [COTA] Impeding penalty (at least 1) during main race qualifying

    [COTA] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda (main race)

    [COTA] Antonelli finishes in top 5 (main race)

    [COTA] 6 or more drivers fail to finish the main race

    [MEX] Physical Safety Car during the race

    [MEX] Red Flag during qualifying

    [MEX] Impeding penalty during qualifying

    [MEX] Max wins and Oscar finishes 3rd or lower

    [MEX] Yuki is send slightly airborne by someone colliding with his right rear tire

    [MEX] Yellow flag first lap main race

    [MEX] George Russell podium

    [MEX] Verstappen takes pole

    [MEX] Piastri finishes ahead of Verstappen

    [MEX] Red Flag during the Race

    [BRA] main race podium is both McLarens and Max in any order

    [BRA] a driver from neither McLaren, RBR, Ferrari or Mercedes gets a podium in the main race

    [BRA] all three WDC contenders take a part replacement penalty

    [BRA] Bortoleto finishes the main race in the points

    [BRA] Max finishes the main race ahead of both McLarens

    [BRA] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race

    [BRA] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)

    [BRA] impeding penalty during qualifying (for the main race)

    [BRA] McLaren 1-2 in the SPRINT Race

    [BRA] Leclerc podium in the main race

    [BRA] Alonso finishes in top 10 in the main race

    [LAS] Red flag during qualifying

    [LAS] Physical safety car during the race

    [LAS] Impeding penalty during qualifying

    [LAS] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris

    [LAS] A Ferrari qualifies in top 4

    [LAS] One or more double-DNF (main race)

    [LAS] McLaren double podium

    [QAT] Verstappen scores 17 points more than Norris over whole weekend

    [QAT] Exactly two cars DNF the GP

    [QAT] Lando Norris wins WDC

    [QAT] Verstappen and Norris make contact in the sprint or main race

    [QAT] yellow flag first lap

    [QAT] driver disqualified after the main race

    [QAT] The same driver wins the Sprint and the main race

    [QAT] Tsunoda reaches Q3 of main race qualifying

    [QAT] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race

    [QAT] Red flag during main race to clear gravel (no stranded car or significant car parts)

    [QAT] Both McLarens touch and at least one of them DNFs because of it

    [QAT] Mercedes on the podium (main race)

    [QAT] Both Racing Bulls in top 10 (main race)

    [QAT] Both Ferraris outside of top 10 (main race)

    [ABU] Red flag during qualifying

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    78

    73

    53

    53

    49

    41

    32

    20

    9

    8

    5

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

    Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    101257890

    OptionProbability

    Any model announced before 2032

    Any model announced before 2031

    Any model announced before 2029

    Any model announced before 2030

    Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

    Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

    Any open-weights model announced before 2030

    Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

    Any model announced before 2028

    Any model announced by xAI before 2030

    Any model announced before 2027

    GPT-6

    Gemini 4

    Grok 5

    Any Claude 5 model

    Claude 5 Opus

    Gemini 3.5

    Claude 3.5 Opus

    Any model announced before 2026

    OpenAI o4

    DeepSeek-V4

    GPT-5

    Grok 3

    OpenAI o3

    Llama 4

    GPT-4.5

    Gemini 2.5

    Gemini 3

    Any Claude 4 model

    grok-4

    Sonnet 4.5

    Kimi K2

    GPT-5.1

    Claude 4.5 Opus

    93

    89

    86

    85

    82

    79

    76

    65

    62

    55

    43

    31

    21

    20

    16

    16

    14

    13

    10

    10

    9

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Lando Norris (McLaren)

    Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

    Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

    Yuki Tsunoda (Previously Liam Lawson) (Red Bull)

    George Russel (Mercedes)

    Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

    Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

    Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

    Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

    Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)

    Pierre Gasly (Alpine)

    Jack Doohan (Alpine)

    Alexander Albon (Williams)

    Carlos Sainz Jr. (Williams)

    Liam Lawson (Previously Yuki Tsunoda) (Visa Cash App Racing Bulls)

    Isack Hadjar (Visa Cash App Racing Bulls)

    Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber/Stake)

    Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber/Stake)

    Esteban Ocon (Haas)

    Ollie Bearman (Haas)

    73

    26

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the F1 World Champion (WDC) in 2025?

    Sep 20, 12:12 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM
    16176737

    OptionProbability

    Lando Norris (McLaren)

    Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

    Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

    Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

    Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

    George Russell (Mercedes)

    Sergio Perez (Red Bull)

    Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

    Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

    Other

    84

    14

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    F1 driver lineup in 2026

    Aug 27, 6:05 PMFeb 21, 7:59 AM
    6525441

    OptionProbability

    Pierre Gasly

    Oliver Bearman

    Lando Norris

    Alex Albon

    Fernando Alonso

    Estaban Ocon

    Valtteri Bottas

    Max Verstappen

    Sergio Perez

    Oscar Piastri

    Charles Leclerc

    George Russell

    Franco Alejandro Colapinto

    Nico Hulkenberg

    Andrea Kimi Antonelli

    Isack Hadjar

    Arvid Lindblad

    Lance Stroll

    Carlos Sainz

    Gabriel Bortoleto

    Liam Lawson

    Lewis Hamilton

    Yuki Tsunoda

    Daniel Riccardo

    Zhou Guanyu

    Jack Doohan

    Kevin Magnussen

    99

    99

    98

    98

    98

    98

    98

    97

    97

    97

    97

    96

    96

    95

    95

    95

    95

    94

    94

    92

    88

    81

    13

    7

    5

    4

    2

    Which 2024 f2 drivers will be promoted to f1 in 2025

    Mar 21, 5:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    4213962

    OptionProbability

    Oliver Bearman

    Gabriel Bortoleto Oliveira

    Andrea Kimi Antonelli

    Franco Alejandro Colapinto

    Isack Alexandre Hadjar

    Paul Aron

    Richard Bastiaan Verschoor

    Zane Maloney

    Enzo Fittipaldi da Cruz

    Dennis Hauger

    Victor Martins

    Josep Maria Martí

    Zak O'Sullivan

    Amaury Cordeel

    Ritomo Miyata

    Rafael Villagómez Jr.

    Joshua Dürksen

    Juan Manuel Correa Borja

    Roman Staněk Jr.

    Kush Maini

    Carlton Jakston (Jak) Crawford

    Taylor Barnard

    None of them

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    27

    17

    10

    7

    7

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    3

    2

    0

    F1 - Who will be the 116th driver to win a Grand Prix?

    Jul 21, 2:58 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM
    459438

    OptionProbability

    Isack Hadjar

    Andrea Kimi Antonelli

    Other

    Alex Albon

    Oliver Bearman

    Lance Stroll

    Yuki Tsunoda

    Nico Hulkenberg

    Gabriel Birtoleto

    Liam Lawson

    Kevin Magnussen

    48

    25

    9

    5

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    0

    Next first-time world champion in F1

    Apr 24, 5:11 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
    214958

    OptionProbability

    Lando Norris

    Oscar Piastri

    George Russell

    Gabriel Bortoleto

    Other

    Charles Leclerc

    Carlos Sainz Jr.

    Kimi Antonelli

    Alex Albon

    Yuki Tsunoda

    Esteban Ocon

    Pierre Gasly

    77

    17

    4

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?

    Jul 17, 5:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    5.34%chance
    124626

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4223

    239

    OptionProbability

    Anthropic

    OpenAI

    Alibaba (Qwen)

    Z.ai

    DeepSeek

    Moonshot (Kimi)

    Baidu (Ernie)

    Mistral

    Nvidia

    Thinking Machines Lab

    01 AI (Yi)

    AI21 Labs (Jamba)

    Cohere (Command R+)

    Reka AI

    NexusFlow (Athene)

    Safe Superintelligence / SSI

    99

    98

    80

    76

    73

    71

    50

    33

    31

    31

    22

    22

    21

    18

    16

    11

    Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date

    Nov 5, 2:19 PMNov 5, 2:18 PM
    51432

    OptionProbability

    Before June 2026

    Before May 2026

    Before April 2026

    Before March 2026

    Before February 2026

    Before January 2026

    Before December 2025

    70

    60

    48

    37

    28

    9

    0

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    771

    13

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