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OptionProbability
March 27
April 2
April 9
April 12
April 17
April 18
April 19
April 24
April 25
April 26
April 29
April 30
May 2
May 6
May 8
May 9
May 13
May 14
May 22
May 24
May 28
May 29
May 30
June 5
June 12
June 21
June 24
June 25
June 26
July 1
July 8
July 11
July 12
July 15
July 18
July 25
July 26
August 2
August 6
August 8
August 21
August 23
September 5
September 9
September 10
September 13
September 24
September 25
September 27
September 30
October 1
October 3
October 4
October 7
October 8
October 10
October 11
October 14
October 16
October 21
October 22
October 23
October 25
October 28
October 29
November 4
November 6
November 8
November 11
November 15
November 18
November 20
November 21
November 22
November 29
December 2
December 3
December 4
December 6
December 9
December 11
December 13
December 16
December 19
December 23
December 24
December 26
January 3
January 6
January 10
January 13
January 15
January 16
January 28
January 29
January 31
February 6
February 10
February 12
February 13
February 26
February 28
March 5
March 7
March 12
March 14
March 17
March 19
March 21
March 24
March 25
April 1
April 7
April 9
April 11
April 14
April 15
April 17
April 21
April 22
April 23
May 1
May 2
May 7
May 8
May 12
May 13
May 16
May 22
May 23
May 30
June 2
June 3
June 4
June 6
June 9
June 18
June 23
June 24
June 26
June 30
July 2
July 3
July 8
July 16
July 17
July 21
July 22
July 25
March 30
March 31
April 6
April 7
August 4
August 5
August 6
August 7
August 8
August 11
August 12
August 13
August 14
August 15
August 18
August 19
August 20
August 21
August 22
August 25
August 26
August 27
August 28
August 29
September 2
September 3
September 4
September 5
September 8
September 9
September 10
September 11
September 12
September 2 (LABOR DAY DO NOT BUY)
March 28
March 29
April 1
April 3
April 4
April 5
April 8
April 10
April 11
April 15
April 16
April 22
April 23
May 1
May 3
May 7
May 10
May 15
May 16
May 17
May 20
May 21
May 23
May 31
June 3
June 4
June 6
June 7
June 10
June 11
June 13
June 14
June 17
June 18
June 19
June 20
June 27
June 28
July 2
July 3
July 5
July 9
July 10
July 16
July 17
July 19
July 22
July 23
July 24
July 29
July 30
July 31
August 1
August 5
August 7
August 9
August 12
August 13
August 14
August 15
August 16
August 19
August 20
August 22
August 26
August 27
August 28
August 29
August 30
September 3
September 4
September 6
September 11
September 12
September 16
September 17
September 18
September 19
September 20
September 23
September 26
October 2
October 9
October 15
October 17
October 18
October 24
October 30
October 31
November 1
November 5
November 7
November 12
November 13
November 14
November 19
November 25
November 26
November 27
November 28
December 5
December 10
December 12
December 17
December 18
December 20
December 25
December 27
December 30
December 31
January 1
January 2
January 7
January 8
January 9
January 14
January 17
January 21
January 22
January 23
January 24
January 27
January 30
February 3
February 4
February 5
February 7
February 11
February 14
February 18
February 19
February 20
February 21
February 24
February 25
February 27
March 3
March 4
March 6
March 10
March 11
March 13
March 18
March 20
March 26
March 27
March 28
March 31
April 2
April 3
April 4
April 8
April 10
April 16
April 18
April 24
April 25
April 28
April 29
April 30
May 5
May 6
May 9
May 14
May 15
May 19
May 20
May 21
May 26
May 27
May 28
May 29
June 5
June 10
June 11
June 12
June 13
June 16
June 17
June 19
June 20
June 25
June 27
July 1
July 4
July 7
July 9
July 10
July 11
July 14
July 15
July 18
July 23
July 24
July 28
July 29
July 30
July 31
August 1
September 1
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OptionProbability
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)
[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)
[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)
[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)
[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)
[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)
[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)
[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)
[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)
[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)
[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)
[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)
[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)
[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)
[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)
[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)
[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)
[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)
[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)
[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)
[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)
[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)
[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)
[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)
[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)
[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)
[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)
[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)
[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)
[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)
[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)
[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)
[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)
[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)
[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)
[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)
[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)
[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)
[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)
[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)
[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days (Nate: 25%)
100
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89
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65
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57
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3
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2
0
0
OptionProbability
25 bps decrease
No change
50+ bps decrease
Increase
77
18
4
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
700
85
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1160
862
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1291
917
OptionVotes
NO
YES
992
988
OptionVotes
NO
YES
163
135
OptionVotes
YES
NO
204
28
OptionVotes
NO
YES
153
65
OptionVotes
YES
NO
136
124
