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Prediction markets for Law of Return
If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?
Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.54%chance
174278
OptionVotes
4638
681
Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?
Apr 27, 10:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
26.36%chance
391532
OptionVotes
1746
485
Will Denmark implement a wealth tax by end of 2027?
Mar 18, 10:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.16%chance
71278
OptionVotes
2278
439
OptionProbability
93
93
61
50
50
45
45
45
37
17
Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
May 20, 9:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33%chance
16603
OptionVotes
142
70
Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?
Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.91%chance
7487
OptionVotes
1319
797
Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election?
Apr 13, 2:28 PMMar 5, 7:59 AM
10.48%chance
11467
OptionVotes
292
34
Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?
Mar 4, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.05%chance
10314
OptionVotes
106
94
Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?
Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM
6.33%chance
5211
OptionVotes
1013
788
Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028
Sep 25, 9:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32%chance
8153
OptionVotes
123
98
Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?
Oct 30, 12:01 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM
71.56%chance
5152
OptionVotes
105
98
OptionVotes
119
84
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