Lead News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Lead
If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?
Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
2364892
OptionProbability
65
29
5
1
Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?
Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
0.74%chance
9431429
OptionVotes
11612
86
Will chuck Schumer lead the senate democrats after 2026 elections?
Mar 19, 3:32 AMJan 3, 12:00 PM
87%chance
2920952
OptionVotes
2548
465
Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 5% or more and lose?
Oct 8, 8:15 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
99%chance
2216262
OptionVotes
7391
50
OptionProbability
1536
1450
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
35.78%chance
10812066
OptionVotes
3025
1894
Will an LLM Agent discover a single significant contribution (+100 elo gain ) over the leading chess engine before 2028?
Nov 4, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.64%chance
98202
OptionVotes
17028
5873
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.07%chance
347402
OptionVotes
1458
688
Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?
Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM
67.89%chance
676430
OptionVotes
1451
640
OptionVotes
999
983
Bitcoin in USD on random day in 2026, resolves to first 2 leading digits as PROB
Jan 23, 11:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.38%chance
121270
OptionVotes
1365
807
IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win?
May 18, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7403
OptionProbability
40
28
17
9
6