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Top stories

Microsoft Encampment Spurs 18 Arrests as Workers Decry Israel Cloud Contracts

Microsoft Encampment Spurs 18 Arrests as Workers Decry Israel Cloud Contracts

Authors

25

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Local Call

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5379100

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

49

5

0

0

0

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

16.18%chance

9340009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10258

1941

Will X (Twitter) be banned in Australia in 2026?

Jan 11, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.82%chance

253696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4027

249

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.46%chance

73401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

411

Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.13%chance

262011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

967

923

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61105

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

28

13

13

13

13

10

8

2

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:51 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM

42.35%chance

32874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

691

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

30%chance

21466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

At the end of 2028, how many times the price of a basic plumbing job will it cost to develop a simple iPhone app?

Feb 16, 1:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27.91%chance

11411

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1149

928

Will John Fetterman resign from the United States Senate?

Sep 5, 12:07 AMJan 3, 12:00 PM

29.28%chance

8231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

64

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

How many count of indictment will Jared Leto face 2026?

Jul 29, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

223

OptionProbability

0

4 - 6

7 - 9

10 - 12

13 - 15

1 - 3

Above 15

19

14

14

14

14

12

12

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Middle East
War
Crime
Microsoft Encampment Spurs 18 Arrests as Workers Decry Israel Cloud Contracts
Authors
25
1 year ago

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