Long March News
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Prediction markets for Long March
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
84
72
66
44
38
37
36
35
35
35
33
31
31
30
27
24
22
15
13
9
8
7
6
5
5
4
4
1
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think AI-caused extinction is more likely?
Jan 30, 5:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
584396
OptionVotes
1373
543
OptionVotes
1901
271
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
Feb 29, 11:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM
63.21%chance
241238
OptionVotes
1488
437
Who is the March 2, 2025 crypto long bet whale? (if known within 2 years) (add answers)
Mar 3, 6:32 PMMar 3, 7:59 AM
3396
OptionProbability
40
39
18
3
Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)
Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
46.21%chance
5346
OptionVotes
1079
927
Will the identity of the March 2, 2025 crypto long bet whale be revealed?
Mar 3, 12:37 PMMar 2, 11:59 PM
14.18%chance
4227
OptionVotes
251
46
Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?
Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM
45.8%chance
5122
OptionVotes
1093
924
Will CALT's Long March 10 rocket carry crew to the moon before 2035?
Sep 17, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
75%chance
6114
OptionVotes
185
67
OptionVotes
119
101
OptionProbability
38
28
17
17
OptionVotes
130
42