Long Range News

Tesla Raises Cybertruck Cyberbeast Price to $114,990, Bundles Luxe Package

1 year ago

Europe

Automobile

Business

Tesla Launches Model Y Performance in Europe at £61,990

11 months ago

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.09%chance

695662843

OptionVotes

YES

18084

7003

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Mar 22, 1:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28167065

OptionProbability

Yes

Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

Feb 14, 1:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.58%chance

12822520

OptionVotes

YES

2741

267

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

YES

1041

910

What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?

Apr 8, 12:56 AMJan 1, 1:40 AM

154559

OptionProbability

A (phased) lifting of specific U.S. economic and oil sanctions on Iran.

Opening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.

A reduction or withdrawal of U.S. naval forces from the Persian Gulf.

A permanent end to the war and a guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again

A formal commitment to end Iranian proxy activities in the Middle East.

Strict international, intrusive monitoring of Iran's nuclear facilities.

A permanent cap on Iranian uranium enrichment levels.

A restriction on Iran's development or testing of long-range ballistic missiles.

An end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

The deal will not be reached or finalized by December 31, 2026.

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

6632

3220

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

57.61%chance

552029

OptionVotes

YES

1261

970

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

How old will I be when I die?

Mar 18, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.14%chance

27756

OptionProbability

YES

1022

811

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

Oct 31, 5:12 AMSep 30, 3:59 PM

7460

OptionProbability

New Zealand

South Africa

France

Ireland

Argentina

England

Other

Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?

Jul 31, 10:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.96%chance

10302

OptionVotes

YES

1105

905

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

YES

1115

1009

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Prediction markets for Long Range

Prediction markets for Long Range

Prediction markets for Long Range

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

How old will I be when I die?

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

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