OptionProbability
Drake Maye - Patriots
Sam Darnold - Seahawks
Geno Smith - Raiders
Cam Ward - Titans
Justin Fields - Jets
Duplicate
Michael Penix - Falcons
Aaron Rodgers - Steelers
J.J. McCarthy - Vikings
Russell Wilson - Giants
Tyler Shough - Saints
Daniel Jones - Colts
Joe Flacco - Browns
Justin Fields - Steelers
Spencer Rattler - Saints
Kenny Pickett - Browns
Shedeur Sanders - Browns
Andy Dalton - Panthers
Mason Rudolph - Steelers
Jaxson Dart - Giants
Dillon Gabriel - Browns
Nick Mullens - Jaguars
Kyle Trask - Bucaneers
Kyle Allen - Lions
Taylor Heinicke - Chargers
Jalen Milroe - Seahawks
Jameis Winston - Giants
Gardner Minshew - Chiefs
Jacoby Brissett - Cardinals
Mac Jones - 49ers
Carson Beck - Panthers
Russell Wilson - Steelers
Dorian Thompson-Robinson - Browns
Daniel Jones - Vikings
Carson Beck - Raiders
Cam Ward - Giants
Cam Ward - Raiders
Shedeur Sanders - Giants
Shedeur Sanders - Raiders
Jameis Winston - Browns
Shedeur Sanders - Titans
Mason Rudolph - Titans
Sam Darnold - Raiders
Russell Wilson - Raiders
Aaron Rodgers - Raiders
Tyrod Taylor - Jets
Trevor Lawrence - Steelers
Aaron Rodgers - Vikings
Sam Darnold - Steelers
Kirk Cousins - Browns
Matthew Stafford - Giants
Sam Darnold - Titans
Jacoby Brissett - Browns
Daniel Jones - Steelers
Justin Fields - Raiders
Aidan O'Connell - Raiders
Sam Darnold - Jets
Aaron Rodgers - Rams
Matthew Stafford - Raiders
Aaron Rodgers - Giants
Sam Darnold - Giants
Sam Howell - Seahawks
Kirk Cousins - Giants
Cam Ward - Steelers
Shedeur Sanders - Steelers
Russell Wilson - Browns
Brandon Allen - 49ers
Jackson Dart - Browns
Joe Flacco - Giants
Kirk Cousins- Steelers
97
97
97
96
96
96
94
91
90
88
75
67
57
50
29
29
21
14
14
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
6
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
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1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
5/15 - After Round 1, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/15 - After Round 1, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?
5-22, After Round 1 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-22, After Round 1 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Justin Thomas?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
7-18, After Round 2 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Ben Griffin lead Collin Morikawa?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Collin Morikawa lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Collin Morikawa lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Thriston Lawrence?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Si Woo Kim?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Brooks Koepka?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sungjae Im?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Ben Griffin?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Ben Griffin?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Ben Griffin?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Viktor Hovland?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Brooks Koepka?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Rory McIlroy lead Jason Day?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Ricky Fowler lead Si Woo Kim?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Si Woo Kim?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Xander Schauffele lead Si Woo Kim?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Xander Schauffele lead J.J. Spaun?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Austin Eckroat?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Austin Eckroat lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Wyndham Clark?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Keegan Bradley lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Keegan Bradley?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Cameron Young?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Viktor Hovland?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Nick Taylor lead Viktor Hovland?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Justin Thomas lead Collin Morikawa?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Adam Scott lead Si Woo Kim?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Justin Thomas lead Collin Morikawa?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Jason Day?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Scottie Scheffler??
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Austin Eckroat?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Nick Taylor??
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Brian Harman lead Wyndham Clark?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Harris English lead Wyndham Clark?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Chris Kirk lead Phillip Knowles?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Shane Lowry?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Jon Rahm?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Xander Schauffele lead Tommy Fleetwood?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Collin Morikawa?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Brian Harman?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Haotong Li?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Haotong Li lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Haotong Li lead Brian Harman?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Keegan Bradley?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jordan Spieth lead Ben Griffin?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Ben Griffin?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Hideki Matsuyama?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Si Woo Kim lead Hideki Matsuyama?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Si Woo Kim?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Alex Noren lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Cameron Young lead Aaron Rai?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Cameron Young lead Aaron Rai?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavarria lead Aaron Rai?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavarria lead Jordan Spieth?
7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Darren Zhou?
7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Lucas Gimenez?
7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Ben Lathrop?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Cameron Young lead the field?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavaria lead Cameron Young?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavaria lead Aaron Rai?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavaria lead Mac Meissner?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jackson Koivun lead Mac Meissner?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jackson Koivun lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Jackson Koivun lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Keegan Bradley?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Corey Connors lead Keegan Bradley?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Harris English lead Keegan Bradley?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Corey Connors lead Harris English?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Harris English?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Chandler Phillips lead Aaron Rai?
5/15 - After Round 1, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/17- After Round 3, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/18- After Round 4, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?
5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ben Griffin?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead J. J. Spaun?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead Viktor Hovland?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Brooks Koepka lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Brooks Koepka lead J.J. Spaun?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead J.J. Spaun?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead J.J. Spaun?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will J. J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead J.J. Spaun?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Viktor Hovland?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Jordan Spieth lead Brooks Koepka?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Tony Finau lead Jason Day?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Tony Finau lead Rory McIlroy?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Ricky Fowler lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Wyndham Clark lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Cameron Young lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Jason Day?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Denny McCarthy lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Austin Eckroat lead Scottie Scheffler??
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Nick Taylor lead Scottie Scheffler??
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Brian Harman lead Harrish English?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Lucas Glover lead Rory McIlroy?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Lucas Glover lead Scottie Scheffler?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Chris Kirk lead Andrew Putnam?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Phillip Knowles lead Andrew Putnam?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Rory McIlroy?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Jon Rahm?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Bryson DeChambeau lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Xander Schauffele lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Victor Hovland lead Tommy Fleetwood?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Victor Hovland lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Aaron Rai?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Keegan Bradley lead Aaron Rai?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Ben Griffin?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Lucas Glover lead Si Woo Kim?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Lucas Glover lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jake Knapp lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Joel Dahmen lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jake Knapp lead Joel Dahmen?
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OptionVotes
NO
YES
11224
8946
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
It is not possible to multitask
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
21
19
12
6
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Kirby
Pit
Captain Falcon
Donkey Kong
Lucina
Toon Link
Luigi
Jigglypuff
Mario
Link
Samus
Pikachu
Ness
Peach
Bowser
Ice Climbers
Sheik
Zelda
Dr. Mario
Pichu
Falco
Marth
Ganondorf
Roy
Meta Knight
Zero Suit Samus
Wario
Sonic
King Dedede
R.O.B
Wolf
Villager
Shulk
Bowser Jr.
Duck Hunt
Ryu
Cloud
Simon Belmont
King K. Rool
Steve
Other
Yoshi
Fox
Young Link
Mewtwo
Mr. Game & Watch
Snake
Ike
PKMN Trainer
Diddy Kong
Lucas
Olimar
Lucario
Mega Man
Wii Fit Trainer
Rosalina & Luma
Little Mac
Greninja
Mii Fighter
Palutena
Pac-Man
Robin
Corrin
Bayonetta
Inkling
Ridley
Richter
Isabelle
Incineroar
Piranha Plant
Joker
Hero
Banjo-Kazooie
Terry Bogard
Byleth
24
22
7
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Department of Education
Transportation Security Administration (TSA)
Federal Statistical Agencies
Freddie Mac
National Weather Service
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
Internal Revenue Service
Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)
National Institutes of Health
Ginnie Mae
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
National Park Service (NPS)
Fannie Mae
Small Business Administration
Federal Bureau of Investigations
The Supreme Court
United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
US Postal Service
Amtrak
100
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
16
15
14
13
7
4
1
1
OptionProbability
Has eye tracking
Has external battery
Has Mac Virtual Display functionality
Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.
Has built in speakers for audio
Will have a glass front
Sells more than 1 million units in its first year
Priced under $2,000
Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated
Has "Air" in its name
Primarily made of aluminum
Has an external display (like eyesight)
Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook
Priced under $1000
Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).
Priced lower than $199
Priced lower than $299
In consumer hands (anywhere) before April 1st 2025
95
87
84
72
72
66
50
50
50
49
48
38
19
18
13
7
5
4
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1008
972
OptionProbability
Over 10^18 Big Macs
10^12-10^15 Big Macs
0 Big Macs
10^15-10^18 Big Macs
1-10^9 Big Macs
10^9- 10^12 Big Macs
28
19
18
18
9
8
OptionVotes
NO
YES
120
21
OptionVotes
NO
YES
110
91
OptionVotes
NO
YES
100
100