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Prediction markets for Market Surveillance
OptionVotes
3629
276
Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?
Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.31%chance
173004
OptionVotes
1921
520
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.39%chance
131949
OptionVotes
2439
410
Will the CDC report more measles cases in 2027 than 2026?
Jul 29, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
53.76%chance
7736
OptionVotes
1078
927
OptionVotes
378
26
OptionProbability
20
18
11
10
10
9
7
7
7
OptionVotes
212
47
Will "OpenAI’s surveillance language has many poten..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 4, 11:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
17.61%chance
3124
OptionVotes
1039
791
Will Canada pass a Warrantless mass data collection law, as part of Bill C-22, in 2026?
May 23, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.54%chance
9106
OptionVotes
116
86
Will there be another covid-scale pandemic throughout the 2020s?
Nov 4, 10:03 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM
25.98%chance
348
OptionVotes
107
76
Will there be more than 20,000 cases of pertussis in the US in 2027?
Oct 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
59.02%chance
230
OptionVotes
330
275
Will migrant boats from France to the UK be consistently sent back to France for at least a month before 2030?
Jan 3, 2:17 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
49.01%chance
12
OptionVotes
102
98
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