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Top stories

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Authors

38

7 days ago

Prediction markets for Mean

Will "SPINNING PLATES OF MEANING ON A NEEDLE MADE OF LIGHT!" receive 10,000 listens in 2025?

Mar 27, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.12%chance

5829701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

818

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

90.33%chance

463285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2396

728

Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

95.06%chance

122564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3203

742

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.14%chance

291516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1761

662

Jordan Peterson asks "what do you mean by 'meaning'" before 2030?

May 26, 7:04 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.71%chance

311388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

506

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Jan 11, 11:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.35%chance

20637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

912

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.24%chance

13393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

871

What will be the mean annual CO2 level in 2025?

Jul 30, 2:42 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

59.78%chance

4124

OptionProbability

NO

YES

352

195

If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?

Sep 9, 3:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5106

OptionProbability

It lacked the means

It lacked the motive

It lacked the opportunity

56

36

7

Will "Two hemispheres - I do not think it means wha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 15, 11:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.16%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

90

Will Steve Horvath maintain his 5 year loss in GrimAge, or will he mean-revert, by EOY 2028?

Nov 10, 8:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Music
Politics
Culture
Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump
Authors
38
7 days ago

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