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Top stories

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Authors

38

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Mean

Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.41%chance

123564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4203

698

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

90.33%chance

463285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2396

728

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

666

Jordan Peterson asks "what do you mean by 'meaning'" before 2030?

May 26, 7:04 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32.63%chance

321495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

70

Will Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley be removed by any means before the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Dec 2, 9:06 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

24.95%chance

111229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1734

577

On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born?

Apr 3, 6:51 PMApr 3, 3:59 AM

191115

OptionProbability

South America

Europe

Africa

Asia

North America

Australia

Antarctica

34

21

17

14

10

3

1

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

506

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Jan 11, 11:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.35%chance

20637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

912

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.48%chance

13493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

866

When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?

Apr 9, 8:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5258

OptionProbability

2023-2024

Other

2024-2025

Before 2023

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2032

2032-never

37

26

15

13

2

2

2

2

Will the first sample of Mars be returned to Earth by robotic means?

Mar 13, 3:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88.27%chance

7162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

132

If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?

Sep 9, 3:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5106

OptionProbability

It lacked the means

It lacked the motive

It lacked the opportunity

56

36

7

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Music
Politics
Culture
Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump
Authors
38
6 months ago

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