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Top stories

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Authors

38

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Mean

Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.41%chance

123564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4203

698

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

89.68%chance

473299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2270

742

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Jan 11, 11:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.14%chance

262358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2360

717

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

666

Will Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley be removed by any means before the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Dec 2, 9:06 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

121279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1596

627

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

506

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.22%chance

13543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

811

When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?

Apr 9, 8:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5258

OptionProbability

2023-2024

Other

2024-2025

Before 2023

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2032

2032-never

37

26

15

13

2

2

2

2

In 2030, will people assume you mean CR7 if you say "Ronaldo"?

Aug 5, 9:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.49%chance

6122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

189

78

Will "Two hemispheres - I do not think it means wha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 15, 11:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.16%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

90

When will "the '20s" begin predominantly meaning the 2020s rather than the 1920s?

Sep 8, 1:24 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

470

OptionProbability

in the 2030s

in the 2040s

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

not before the 2050s

2024 or earlier

42

18

6

6

6

6

6

6

2

Will the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2026 be 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average ?

Jun 2, 12:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.67%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

64

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Music
Politics
Culture
Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump
Authors
38
1 year ago

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