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Top stories

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Authors

38

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Mean

Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.41%chance

123564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4203

698

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

89.68%chance

473299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2270

742

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Jan 11, 11:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.14%chance

262358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2360

717

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

666

Will Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley be removed by any means before the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Dec 2, 9:06 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

22.69%chance

131529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

542

When will a spacecraft be launched by non-rocket means?

Apr 23, 12:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91215

OptionProbability

2052-2053

2053-2054

2054-2055

2055-2056

2056-2057

2041-2042

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2049-2050

2050-2051

2051-2052

2057-2058

2058-2059

2059-2060

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2042-2043

2043-2044

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2024-2025

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2060-2061

2061-2062

2062-2063

2063-2064

2064-2065

2065-2066

2066-2067

2067-2068

2068-2069

2069-2070

2070-2071

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

506

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50.54%chance

14568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

786

Will gravitational waves be used as a viable means of communication by 2100?

Jun 12, 4:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.66%chance

7274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

70

When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?

Apr 9, 8:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5258

OptionProbability

2023-2024

Other

2024-2025

Before 2023

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2032

2032-never

37

26

15

13

2

2

2

2

Will climate intervention (geoengineering) reduce global mean surface temperature by at least 0.1°C by 2030?

Jul 12, 6:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.9%chance

8193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

37

Is Smale's Mean Value conjecture true?

Oct 22, 11:10 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.52%chance

335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

49

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Music
Politics
Culture
Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump
Authors
38
1 year ago

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