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Prediction markets for Messages
Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?
Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
12.99%chance
5513610
OptionVotes
20519
7234
OptionProbability
11
10
10
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
9.89%chance
184256
OptionVotes
3019
331
Will humans send AND receive a message telepathically via brain machine interface before 2026?
Jan 10, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18.33%chance
653808
OptionVotes
1561
807
Will humans receive a message from an extraterrestrial or inter-dimensional intelligence before the end of 2027?
Aug 27, 5:59 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
3.45%chance
403153
OptionVotes
2574
873
In 2030, will LLMs be sending messages to coordinate with one another, whether we can decode them or not?
May 2, 1:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
94%chance
14788
OptionVotes
767
64
Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
36.12%chance
11684
OptionVotes
1330
752
Will Mark Zuckerbergs prediction of being able to "send messages with your mind" by 01/01/2028 be correct?
Jan 12, 10:26 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM
18.02%chance
17611
OptionVotes
1362
893
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.57%chance
4317
OptionVotes
1141
876
When will we find out about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages, what quarter of what year?
Oct 22, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
6201
OptionProbability
45
16
7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Will all four Kryptos messages be solved by the end of 2027?
May 5, 1:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
35%chance
7140
OptionVotes
136
73
Will a major art auction house have sold AI-generated artwork that is later revealed to contain a hidden message? (2028)
May 19, 3:32 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM
33.88%chance
9124
OptionVotes
262
136
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