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Prediction markets for Move language
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
57%chance
19231445284
OptionVotes
4997
3766
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
19.85%chance
796429524
OptionVotes
34977
14290
OptionProbability
96
96
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96
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96
96
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96
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82
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66
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52
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50
50
47
41
40
34
30
28
22
20
6
Will we have AI that can explain chess moves logic in human language by 2030?
Feb 11, 6:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
94.3%chance
415214
OptionVotes
1890
868
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
82.06%chance
372697
OptionVotes
1928
630
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?
Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM
131937
Will I conclude my life is better 1 year from now than it was at time of market creation?
Aug 21, 2:43 PMAug 21, 2:39 PM
65.65%chance
191222
OptionVotes
1382
723
Will manuscript typeset with Typst be accepted in major journals by Oct. 2025?
Oct 2, 4:35 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM
22.88%chance
10421
OptionVotes
702
403
Will the Catala legal programming language still be maintained in 2030?
Sep 18, 8:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
17.94%chance
14335
OptionVotes
1198
936
Wikipedia article "X (social media platform)" no longer redirects to "Twitter" on December 31, 2026
Mar 10, 1:58 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
59.53%chance
470
OptionVotes
121
82
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