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Prediction markets for Move language
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
46.61%chance
20751812014
OptionVotes
4643
4058
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.91%chance
811504802
OptionVotes
58014
10529
Will we have AI that can explain chess moves logic in human language by 2030?
Feb 11, 6:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
96.02%chance
415964
OptionVotes
2640
830
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
82.06%chance
372697
OptionVotes
1928
630
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?
Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM
131949
OptionProbability
44
30
27
27
26
26
26
26
Will I conclude my life is better 1 year from now than it was at time of market creation?
Aug 21, 2:43 PMAug 21, 2:39 PM
68.73%chance
201322
OptionVotes
1482
675
Will the Catala legal programming language still be maintained in 2030?
Sep 18, 8:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
18.74%chance
14367
OptionVotes
1149
947
Will the Wikipedia article "X (social media platform)" no longer redirect to "Twitter" on December 31, 2026?
Mar 10, 1:58 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
74.58%chance
5120
OptionVotes
171
58
Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?
Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM
47.56%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
952
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