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3 days ago

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4 days ago

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2 days ago

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16 days ago

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.06%chance

230167258

OptionProbability

YES

5059

4362

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.91%chance

11225182

OptionVotes

YES

1618

741

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.67%chance

619489

OptionVotes

YES

1253

805

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

15%chance

307794

OptionVotes

YES

2286

457

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

42.19%chance

206441

OptionVotes

YES

12038

8179

Will Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?

Jun 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

57.79%chance

1092712

OptionVotes

YES

1708

1257

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.3%chance

151979

OptionVotes

YES

1384

723

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

251969

OptionVotes

YES

1667

397

Will the world reach peak natural gas production by 2035?

Feb 21, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.53%chance

13638

OptionVotes

YES

1081

913

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66%chance

20570

OptionVotes

YES

1069

792

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

YES

1286

778

Is supersymmetry realized in nature?

Aug 31, 4:32 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

22.11%chance

16510

OptionVotes

YES

1195

901

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How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Will Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Will the world reach peak natural gas production by 2035?

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Is supersymmetry realized in nature?

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