Nature News

University of Florida Develops mRNA Cancer Vaccine Showing Tumor Elimination, Long-Lasting Immunity Amid $500 Million Funding Cuts

9 months ago

Nature Study Says Antarctic Ice Decline Nears Irreversible Tipping Point

Climate

Science

Environment

Nature Study Says Antarctic Ice Decline Nears Irreversible Tipping Point

9 months ago

Moroccan Jurassic Ankylosaur Sported Metre-Long Rib Spikes, Nature Study Shows

Morocco

Archeology

Science

Moroccan Jurassic Ankylosaur Sported Metre-Long Rib Spikes, Nature Study Shows

8 months ago

Space

Physics

Science

Astronomers Capture Rare View of Supernova 2021yfj’s Exposed Silicon Core

9 months ago

Bio

Health

Science

Nature Study Links SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza to Dormant Cancer Cell Reactivation, Highlights mRNA Vaccine Immune Effects

9 months ago

Economics

Business

World

Nature Warns Global Fertility Slump Could Upend Economies by 2050

9 months ago

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

244171107

OptionProbability

YES

4793

4747

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.97%chance

11626804

OptionVotes

YES

2867

552

In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation

Sep 5, 3:34 PMSep 5, 3:34 PM

55.23%chance

1411755

OptionVotes

YES

1111

901

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.09%chance

629496

OptionVotes

YES

1241

812

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

208133

OptionVotes

YES

10346

9625

Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.

Nov 7, 1:55 AMJan 20, 5:59 AM

83%chance

507272

OptionVotes

YES

2210

453

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

Before 2026

Will Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?

Jun 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

60.32%chance

1132835

OptionVotes

YES

1647

1345

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

251969

OptionVotes

YES

1667

397

Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?

Oct 27, 3:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

51%chance

6799

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.87%chance

21620

OptionVotes

YES

1044

842

Will "(Some) Natural Emergent Misalignment from Rew..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 31, 6:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Will Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Will "(Some) Natural Emergent Misalignment from Rew..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

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