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Prediction markets for Nature
How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?
Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
59.9%chance
244171107
OptionProbability
4793
4747
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
90.97%chance
11626804
OptionVotes
2867
552
In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation
Sep 5, 3:34 PMSep 5, 3:34 PM
54.96%chance
1411760
OptionVotes
1105
906
If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?
Feb 27, 5:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.09%chance
629496
OptionVotes
1241
812
Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]
Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM
49.98%chance
208133
OptionVotes
10346
9625
Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.
Nov 7, 1:55 AMJan 20, 5:59 AM
83%chance
507272
OptionVotes
2210
453
Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)
Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
226519
OptionProbability
68
8
7
7
7
0
OptionVotes
1647
1345
Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?
Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
29.88%chance
251969
OptionVotes
1667
397
Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?
Oct 27, 3:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
51%chance
6799
OptionVotes
1020
980
Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?
Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
67.87%chance
21620
OptionVotes
1044
842
Will "(Some) Natural Emergent Misalignment from Rew..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 31, 6:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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