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Prediction markets for Nature Sustainability
Will 10% or more of Americans identify as atheist by 2040?
Oct 29, 5:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
84.08%chance
441459
OptionVotes
1793
711
OptionVotes
204
163
Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?
Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.74%chance
8545
OptionVotes
1401
714
OptionProbability
32
16
15
13
7
6
5
3
3
Hamas-Israel hostilities in Gaza resume by June 30, 2026?
Oct 12, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
42.27%chance
18473
OptionVotes
117
86
OptionVotes
196
51
Will there be a medical intervention that reliably alters Big 5 personality traits for willing participants before 2030?
Jan 11, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
30.88%chance
14379
OptionVotes
150
67
Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Apr 21, 1:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
67.75%chance
12360
OptionVotes
145
69
Wild Honey Bees functionally extinct in the USA by 2030?
Jul 8, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.37%chance
10139
OptionVotes
159
66
In what year will AI achieve 90% of progress in TextQuests benchmark?
Aug 9, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM
270
OptionProbability
31
12
12
12
12
12
10
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