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Top stories

Mastodon Co-Founder Brent Hinds Dies in Atlanta Motorcycle Crash at 51

Mastodon Co-Founder Brent Hinds Dies in Atlanta Motorcycle Crash at 51

Authors

13

1 year ago

Prediction markets for No

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.06%chance

324668305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2713

2452

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.56%chance

154223270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

58291

46413

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69%chance

27195431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3163

1534

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39%chance

24381476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2442

1381

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

16280148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3716

943

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2497

1461

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.08%chance

12237779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2268

1941

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?

Apr 9, 5:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

71.53%chance

11023460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1843

939

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

55%chance

488666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

754

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

275029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2499

478

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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Mastodon Co-Founder Brent Hinds Dies in Atlanta Motorcycle Crash at 51
Authors
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1 year ago

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