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Top stories

Mastodon Co-Founder Brent Hinds Dies in Atlanta Motorcycle Crash at 51

Mastodon Co-Founder Brent Hinds Dies in Atlanta Motorcycle Crash at 51

Authors

13

7 months ago

Prediction markets for No

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.12%chance

315655501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2746

2376

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.82%chance

99161555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111105

17339

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.56%chance

27095171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3055

1584

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.77%chance

24080802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2163

2076

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.31%chance

16179283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

953

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2497

1461

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.91%chance

12137769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2274

1931

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?

Apr 9, 5:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

71.53%chance

11023460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1843

939

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

46%chance

487689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

926

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.72%chance

274647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

545

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

50.37%chance

17245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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Mastodon Co-Founder Brent Hinds Dies in Atlanta Motorcycle Crash at 51
Authors
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