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Top stories

Mastodon Co-Founder Brent Hinds Dies in Atlanta Motorcycle Crash at 51

Mastodon Co-Founder Brent Hinds Dies in Atlanta Motorcycle Crash at 51

Authors

13

1 year ago

Prediction markets for No

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.86%chance

328673400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2756

2354

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.41%chance

198384813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155442

22908

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75%chance

27396094

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3693

1329

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39%chance

24481755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2442

1381

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

16280148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3716

943

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.78%chance

19278703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3186

1087

Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)

Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.91%chance

12237892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2306

1876

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

4615921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15753

6501

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

55%chance

488666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

754

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?

Apr 9, 5:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85%chance

696372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1925

718

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

275029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2499

478

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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Mastodon Co-Founder Brent Hinds Dies in Atlanta Motorcycle Crash at 51
Authors
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1 year ago

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