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Prediction markets for No
This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73%chance
294628706
OptionVotes
2722
2606
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.25%chance
88143181
OptionVotes
106395
18257
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
65%chance
26992949
OptionVotes
2879
1674
OptionVotes
3716
943
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
38%chance
24078052
OptionVotes
2414
1425
By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?
Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
53.48%chance
18377199
OptionVotes
2274
1635
Jensen Huang (YES) vs Pope Leo (NO): Time POTY 2025
Nov 30, 4:22 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM
63.02%chance
10749538
OptionVotes
1217
1014
Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)
Jun 6, 8:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
64.9%chance
12137711
OptionVotes
2242
1989
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
Apr 9, 5:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
71.53%chance
11023460
OptionVotes
1843
939
Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
27.86%chance
4515871
OptionVotes
15703
6520
If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM
44.56%chance
477663
OptionVotes
1024
957
this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 72 consecutive hours
Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM
49.78%chance
15223
OptionVotes
100
100