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Prediction markets for Nobel

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Jan 9, 1:47 PMDec 11, 10:59 PM

4%chance

118145322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2231

1404

Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2034?

Jul 28, 10:19 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

3.29%chance

10332752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10281

873

Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.92%chance

6624614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6394

564

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?

Mar 20, 10:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.93%chance

10922033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

980

968

Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?

Jan 26, 12:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.09%chance

11111401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1616

1558

Will Donald Trump win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

May 30, 6:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

6.28%chance

498654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

929

652

If Krantz goes on a proper date with Robin Hanson, they will win a Nobel Prize in Economics.

Mar 15, 12:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.88%chance

85445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

841

Will someone win a Nobel prize in Economics for contributions to blockchain/cryptocurrencies by 2040?

Dec 12, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.9%chance

393975

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1270

457

Will Michael Levin win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?

Jan 3, 8:10 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

43.84%chance

321876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

751

Will a Nobel Prize be awarded for work on superconductors before 2034?

Sep 18, 1:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

50.4%chance

23878

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

997

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Mar 9, 4:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.97%chance

23632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

776

Will Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:08 PMJan 13, 6:59 AM

27.03%chance

17368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

941

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