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Nobel Peace News

    Prediction markets for Nobel Peace

    Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?

    Nov 8, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    3%chance
    131109535

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    9681

    419

    Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize?

    Jan 29, 6:49 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
    3.46%chance
    5641122

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    5285

    189

    🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

    Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM
    6314200

    OptionProbability

    Other

    MSF / Doctors without Borders

    Yulia Navalnaya

    Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

    Pope Leo XIV

    Save the Children

    UNRWA

    Narges Mohammadi

    Donald Trump

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Shehbaz Sharif

    Netanyahu

    International Court of Justice

    Greta Thunberg

    Narendra Modi

    Abdullah Öcalan

    Minnesota (or the People of Minnesota)

    duplicate - international Court of Justice

    UNESCO

    Philippe Lazzarini

    Joe Biden

    Alexei Navalny

    Kyaw Moe Tun

    José Andrés

    World Uyghur Congress

    Maria Corina Machado

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

    Timnit Gebru

    Elon Musk

    NATO

    JD Vance

    AOC

    Antonio Guterres

    Julian Assange

    David Attenborough

    Pope Francis

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Keir Starmer

    European Union

    Ilham Tohti

    Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

    Jacinda Ardern

    Raoni Metuktire

    José Andrés

    Loujain al-Hathloul

    Ilwad Elman

    Wa Lone

    Yvonne Ridley

    Hajer Sharief

    Alexis Tsipras

    Isaias Afwerki

    Nathan Law

    Agnes Chow

    Filippo Grandi

    Yuan Longping

    Mahbouba Seraj

    Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

    Juan Carlos Jintiach

    Joshua Wong

    Ernest Moniz

    DOGE

    Kamala Harris

    Noam Chomsky

    International Fact-Checking Network

    Manifold Markets

    Justin Trudeau

    Vladimir Putin

    Aleksandr Lukashenko

    Sam Altman

    Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

    Kim Jong Un

    Daniel Sheehan

    Robert Kennedy Jr

    @Krantz

    Gustavo Petro

    The Iranian protesters

    Peacekeepers

    Jimmy Lai

    Francesca Albanese

    Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

    Haitham bin Tariq Al Said

    Any Kurdish person (or the Kurdish people

    44

    11

    6

    6

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?

    Oct 9, 1:14 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM
    2.9%chance
    3612345

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    5795

    173

    Will the "Trump Nobel Peace Prize 2026" market ever reach 10% again?

    Jan 20, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    4.33%chance
    2510737

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    9684

    509

    Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Nobel peace prize before 2100?

    May 7, 8:19 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
    6.84%chance
    404348

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1193

    957

    Will William MacAskill ever win the Nobel Peace Prize?

    Sep 17, 6:27 PMMar 24, 3:59 AM
    3.57%chance
    313564

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1714

    904

    Will Greta Thunberg receive the Nobel peace prize before she dies?

    Oct 30, 5:33 PMNov 7, 4:59 AM
    11.86%chance
    253119

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1360

    908

    Will the people of Minneapolis win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?

    Feb 4, 3:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    4.75%chance
    142913

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2056

    923

    Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040?

    Nov 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    8.36%chance
    322372

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1695

    870

    Krantz hiring Danny Sheehan | Nobel Peace Price

    Aug 19, 5:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    6721

    OptionProbability

    Krantz does not hire Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030

    Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and both Krantz and Sheehan win the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050

    Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and Sheehan (but not Krantz) wins the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050

    Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and Krantz (but not Sheehan) wins the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050

    Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and neither Krantz nor Sheehan win the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050

    72

    14

    6

    5

    2

    If Eliezer Yudkowsky wins the Nobel Peace Prize, what will it be for?

    Nov 30, 11:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    16353

    OptionProbability

    Delaying superintelligence

    Alignment research

    Accelerating AI progress

    75

    41

    9

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