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Prediction markets for Normal People
OptionVotes
1539
1185
Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?
Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
86.88%chance
11430322
OptionVotes
2576
389
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?
Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
95.94%chance
10423726
OptionVotes
9951
741
OptionVotes
986
980
OptionVotes
1275
784
US legislature (House or Senate) fails to swear in / seat an elected member after midterms
Feb 7, 8:33 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM
23.49%chance
71688
OptionVotes
1805
554
OptionVotes
1038
971
Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?
Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15%chance
15782
OptionVotes
1675
819
Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?
Feb 18, 9:18 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
48.66%chance
33632
OptionVotes
1033
960
General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?
Apr 14, 11:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50.27%chance
15274
OptionVotes
1004
994
100+ people regain mobility using a Neuralink device by mid 2027
Jun 19, 5:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
45.77%chance
6221
OptionVotes
1089
919
Will a study be done comparing blood/tissue microplastics lvls of frequent coffee drinkers vs "normal people" by EOY2027
Sep 14, 6:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
76.14%chance
280
OptionVotes
179
56
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