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Prediction markets for Olympiad
Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?
Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
98.06%chance
85394745
OptionVotes
6939
128
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
27.84%chance
143124072
OptionVotes
14589
9133
When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
67112101
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
Jul 26, 3:04 AMAug 20, 10:59 PM
2.47%chance
18096812
OptionVotes
6287
159
Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?
Jul 23, 1:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
72.31%chance
22688584
OptionVotes
1963
741
Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?
Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
93.93%chance
7428716
OptionVotes
3870
423
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
69.56%chance
6015052
OptionVotes
9919
9893
Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?
May 18, 2:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
16.76%chance
249794
OptionVotes
2229
449
When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?
Nov 29, 5:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
484858
OptionProbability
30
23
16
16
8
6
1
OptionVotes
2084
587
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
16.35%chance
211834
OptionVotes
987
811
Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]
Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM
46.03%chance
101723
OptionVotes
1083
923
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