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Top stories

Muchova Ends 45-Year-Old Venus Williams’s US Open Comeback

Muchova Ends 45-Year-Old Venus Williams’s US Open Comeback

Authors

13

3 months ago

US Open 2025 Pairs Record $90 Million Purse With $100 Caviar Nuggets

US Open 2025 Pairs Record $90 Million Purse With $100 Caviar Nuggets

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3 months ago

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Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Open

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.09%chance

403219724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11166

1492

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

68113453

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

70

19

3

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?

Mar 12, 7:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

92.6%chance

18550085

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3537

283

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

Nov 30, 3:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.01%chance

11848359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5267

645

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

22427674

OptionProbability

Hamas

Israel

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

International Peacekeeping Force

PLO

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Turkey

28

27

25

7

4

3

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

91.43%chance

9410054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2554

67

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

50%chance

364585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82%chance

382155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2971

1655

Will Trump and Mamdani openly feud before February 21?

Nov 22, 12:58 AMFeb 20, 11:59 PM

62.5%chance

241248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

14135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

1053

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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