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Top stories

Muchova Ends 45-Year-Old Venus Williams’s US Open Comeback

Muchova Ends 45-Year-Old Venus Williams’s US Open Comeback

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13

10 months ago

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Prediction markets for Open

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

74123174

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

81

10

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

42.34%chance

9534261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12025

8215

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

23029098

OptionProbability

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

Israel

Hamas

PLO

International Peacekeeping Force

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Turkey

32

28

24

5

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Brightline West open for service before 2028?

Jun 11, 11:34 PMJan 1, 7:01 AM

2.46%chance

1310377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5418

106

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

91.43%chance

9410054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2554

67

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

59.93%chance

395035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

818

Will Brightline West open for service before 2030?

Jun 18, 4:25 PMJan 1, 7:01 AM

23.33%chance

274329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1678

170

Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?

Mar 30, 12:08 AMJul 1, 10:59 PM

5.44%chance

183216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4168

240

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82.35%chance

392206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3022

1644

Will Brightline West open for service before 2031?

Aug 13, 7:37 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

33.05%chance

141244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

227

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

14135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

1053

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