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Top stories

Muchova Ends 45-Year-Old Venus Williams’s US Open Comeback

Muchova Ends 45-Year-Old Venus Williams’s US Open Comeback

Authors

13

1 year ago

US Open 2025 Pairs Record $90 Million Purse With $100 Caviar Nuggets

US Open 2025 Pairs Record $90 Million Purse With $100 Caviar Nuggets

Authors

5

1 year ago

Google Adds One-Click Vids Editing for Videos Stored in Drive

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Open

OpenAI IPO Market Cap (MNX)

Sep 11, 11:01 PM

585488560

Open-weight AI token share on OpenRouter (%)

Aug 6, 3:21 AM

67263077

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87154421

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2026-2027

2028-2029

2025-2026

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

44

35

10

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

"Avengers: Doomsday" breaks the record for the biggest opening weekend of all time?

Oct 18, 12:18 AMDec 26, 1:16 AM

63.14%chance

5839411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1309

764

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

23229935

OptionProbability

Israel

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

Hamas

PLO

International Peacekeeping Force

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

A new Gaza-elected government

Turkey

32

30

24

4

3

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

95.33%chance

9910950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2946

41

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

112450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3168

2299

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82.68%chance

392256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3072

1633

Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?

Oct 12, 10:33 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

302150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?

Jul 24, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.09%chance

13885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1795

255

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.73%chance

18430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

1002

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