Opening Day News

Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours

Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days

Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days

Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck

The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days

>= 10 American soldiers are killed

A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days

Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days

Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days

Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel

Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days

Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel

>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed

Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon

Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel

Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war

A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects

Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days

A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader

Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs

Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel

100+ civilian deaths in Israel

A nuclear weapon is used offensively

QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days

Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours

NO

YES

YES

By January 2080

[The original market resolves NO before January 2080]

By January 2040

[The original market resolves NO before January 2030]

By January 2035

By January 2030

By January 2026

[All open months are continuously over 90% for at least 7 days because of new information linked in the comments, before January 2026]

[The original market resolves N/A and remains N/A for at least a year, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By March 2024

By July 2024

By January 2025

YES

YES

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henly lead J.J. Spaun?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Keegan Bradley lead Colin Morikawa?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Maverick McNealy?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Corey Conners lead Kristoffer Reitan?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Kevin Roy?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ryan Riley lead Chris Gerard?

01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?

01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?

01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Robert MacIntyre lead Jacob Bridgeman?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Davis Riley lead Taylor Pendrith?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Lee Hodges lead Harry Hall?

01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Scottie Scheffler?

01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Si Woo Kim?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Jason Day lead Andrew Putnam?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Tom Hoge lead Davis Riley?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Joel Dahmen lead Max McGreevy?

02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?

02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Chris Gotterup?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Jake Knapp lead Pierceson Coody?

02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Jake Knapp lead Pierceson Coody?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Maverick McNealy?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Maverick McNealy?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Michael Thorbjornsen lead Maverick McNealy?

02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?

02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?

02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?

03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Ludvig Åberg lead Xander Schauffele?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?

01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

91-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

03-01, After Round 4 of the Cognizant Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Justin Rose?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Patrick Reed lead Justin Rose?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Patrick Reed?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Scottie Scheffler?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Rose?

04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Patrick Reed?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Scottie Scheffler?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

02-22, After Round 4 of the Genesis Invitational in Pacific Pallisades, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Robert McIntyre lead Ben Griffin?

1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Aaron Rai lead Chris Gotterup?

03-08, After Round 4 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Chris Gotterup?

1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Alex Smalley lead John Parry?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?

1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Chris Gotterup?

1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Kevin Roy lead Chris Gotterup?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?

01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?

01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?

01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?

01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?

01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Matt McCarty lead Si Woo Kim?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Ryan Gerard lead Chris Gotterup?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Matt McCarty lead Patrick Rodgers?

01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Sam Stevens lead Si Woo Kim?

01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?

01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?

01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?

01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?

01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?

01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?

01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?

01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?

02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?

02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?

02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?

02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?

02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?

02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?

02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Hideki Matsuyama?

02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Hideki Si Woo Kim?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?

02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?

02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?

02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?

02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?

03-15, After Round 4 of The Players Championship, will Ludvig Åberg lead Xander Schauffele?

03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Corey Conners lead Xander Schauffele?

03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Justin Thomas lead Xander Schauffele?

YES

YES

NO

6-7

4-5

2-3

8-9