Opening Day News

US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility

Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)

UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution

Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem

Iranian General killed inside Iran

Donald Trump declares victory

Iranian government official declares victory

China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal

US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days

Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours

War ends in 2025

500+ Iranian civilians killed

US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year

Fordow facility successfully bombed

Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites

Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal

Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil

Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed

The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict

Israel government dissolves

Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA

Iran launches a cruise missile

At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason

North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)

Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)

A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)

Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"

Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume

Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA

Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%

A second cease-fire is announced

Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz

Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel

A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank

USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution

Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours

Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.

Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran

Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar

WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)

>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict

>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict

Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours

USA conducts a second bombing in Iran

A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed

Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)

Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)

Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict

Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace

Iranian government dissolves

Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon

Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%

Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day

Iran regime change

War Ends in June

Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)

Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform

Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil

UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes

Saudi Arabia attacks Iran

Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed

Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz

Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026

There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.

Total casualties exceed 10,000

Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive

War ends in July

Iran tests a nuclear weapon

Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi

State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran

Qatar attacks Iran

≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict

US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)

Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025

A nuclear weapon is used offensively.

NO

YES

NO

NO

YES

YES

YES

Migration will be the biggest topic again in the campaigns

CDA will be among the 3 biggest parties

PVV will become the biggest party

VVD will be among the 3 biggest parties

VVD will be open for coalition with PVV day after election day

PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day

Henri Bontenbal becomes Prime Minister

VVD will pick a new party leader

Dutch Elections will be delayed (not 29th of Oct)

Schoof will join a party before election day

YES

NO

NO