Ordinary News

Morgan Wallen’s ‘I’m the Problem’ Sells 121,000 Units, Tops Billboard 200 for 12th Week; Billie Eilish #6, Taylor Swift #10

1 year ago

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

642683358

OptionVotes

YES

5223

5020

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.59%chance

2365063

OptionVotes

YES

54752

2507

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.09%chance

9631706

OptionVotes

YES

1322

1269

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11%chance

286231

OptionVotes

YES

1299

934

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

155892

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

43.17%chance

223650

OptionVotes

YES

4443

3625

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 2:57 PMJun 9, 9:59 PM

44.92%chance

71533

OptionVotes

YES

1584

1422

Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?

Mar 9, 11:46 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

87.2%chance

8653

OptionVotes

YES

473

174

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

YES

994

In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in gender dysphoria over the past few decades?

Aug 19, 11:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13142

OptionProbability

there was no increase in gender dysphoria after all (it just became more socially acceptable to transition)

still no consensus

Other

Kids mistaking ordinary teenage identity crisis and anxiety for gender dysphoria because of how common that narrative is at the moment

Ordinary Sausage hospitalized for food poisoning by 2030?

Oct 16, 1:13 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

46%chance

8137

OptionVotes

YES

108

Can we find evidence for states with indefinite mass(beyond ordinary unstable resonances),

Dec 31, 3:32 PMJan 1, 3:31 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

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Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
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Morgan Wallen’s ‘I’m the Problem’ Sells 121,000 Units, Tops Billboard 200 for 12th Week; Billie Eilish #6, Taylor Swift #10
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1 year ago

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By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in gender dysphoria over the past few decades?

Ordinary Sausage hospitalized for food poisoning by 2030?

Can we find evidence for states with indefinite mass(beyond ordinary unstable resonances),

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