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Prediction markets for Ordinary
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
27.86%chance
653719860
OptionVotes
5791
4783
OptionVotes
60647
2307
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
29.94%chance
10332775
OptionVotes
1351
1104
Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?
Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
156353
OptionProbability
29
6
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
11%chance
286231
OptionVotes
1299
934
OptionProbability
66
51
28
26
Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?
Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM
42.64%chance
233700
OptionVotes
4493
3587
Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
May 18, 2:57 PMJun 9, 9:59 PM
44.92%chance
71533
OptionVotes
1584
1422
Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?
Mar 9, 11:46 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
87.2%chance
8653
OptionVotes
473
174
Ordinary Sausage hospitalized for food poisoning by 2030?
Oct 16, 1:13 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
38.04%chance
9167
OptionVotes
128
78
In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in gender dysphoria over the past few decades?
Aug 19, 11:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
13142
OptionProbability
47
37
10
6
Can we find evidence for states with indefinite mass(beyond ordinary unstable resonances),
Dec 31, 3:32 PMJan 1, 3:31 PM
50%chance
122
OptionVotes
100
100
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