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Apple Sets Sept. 9 ‘Awe Dropping’ Event to Unveil iPhone 17 Lineup

111

3 months ago

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.79%chance

255259969

OptionVotes

YES

5157

4769

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.45%chance

8537707

OptionVotes

YES

1265

790

Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?

Nov 11, 9:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.33%chance

2610624

OptionVotes

YES

3318

301

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.32%chance

5110194

OptionVotes

YES

1060

902

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.68%chance

425677

OptionVotes

YES

1208

828

Will the price of Bitcoin be at least $60,000 in 2040 (assuming humanity survives)?

Jun 2, 10:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.44%chance

124918

OptionVotes

YES

1215

911

West coast best coast (in math olympiads)?

Nov 21, 8:22 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

16.18%chance

353909

OptionVotes

YES

2088

587

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Feb 7, 8:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

65.96%chance

91972

OptionVotes

YES

1392

718

Will I touch a “2025” penny in 2025?

Feb 10, 7:02 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

49.18%chance

151927

OptionVotes

YES

1017

984

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

22.75%chance

111111

OptionVotes

YES

1843

543

Will air quality in Los Angeles improve by 2037?

Jun 18, 12:35 AMJun 17, 7:00 PM

86.79%chance

191099

OptionVotes

YES

1180

935

Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2027?

Dec 4, 5:18 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.28%chance

15422

OptionVotes

YES

148

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Apple Sets Sept. 9 ‘Awe Dropping’ Event to Unveil iPhone 17 Lineup
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Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Will the price of Bitcoin be at least $60,000 in 2040 (assuming humanity survives)?

West coast best coast (in math olympiads)?

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Will I touch a “2025” penny in 2025?

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Will air quality in Los Angeles improve by 2037?

Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2027?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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