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Apple Sets Sept. 9 ‘Awe Dropping’ Event to Unveil iPhone 17 Lineup
Authors
111
7 months ago
Prediction markets for Pacific Time
OptionVotes
11659
8923
OptionProbability
90
88
86
85
81
81
80
73
73
72
65
60
58
56
54
27
24
23
14
13
13
13
13
12
10
10
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.46%chance
283283146
OptionVotes
6817
3928
OptionProbability
100
100
100
98
93
77
64
45
36
29
17
15
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33.71%chance
10641414
OptionVotes
1402
713
Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?
Jan 8, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90%chance
1129061
OptionVotes
300
33
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
36.31%chance
5711924
OptionVotes
1395
643
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?
Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
1511432
OptionProbability
63
54
42
28
9
5
OptionVotes
1260
794
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.14%chance
587850
OptionVotes
1062
947
OptionProbability
41
22
12
OptionVotes
122
82

