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Apple Sets Sept. 9 ‘Awe Dropping’ Event to Unveil iPhone 17 Lineup
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3 months ago
Prediction markets for Pacific Time
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
54.79%chance
255259969
OptionVotes
5157
4769
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
38.45%chance
8537707
OptionVotes
1265
790
Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
Nov 11, 9:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
8.33%chance
2610624
OptionVotes
3318
301
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
51.32%chance
5110194
OptionVotes
1060
902
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.68%chance
425677
OptionVotes
1208
828
Will the price of Bitcoin be at least $60,000 in 2040 (assuming humanity survives)?
Jun 2, 10:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
83.44%chance
124918
OptionVotes
1215
911
OptionVotes
2088
587
OptionVotes
1392
718
OptionVotes
1017
984
OptionVotes
1843
543
OptionVotes
1180
935
OptionVotes
125
80